683
FXUS64 KEWX 241818
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
118 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN
HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA.
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
- MOSTLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF LOW
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THERE IS LITTLE SIGN THAT THE HEAT WILL RECEDE SUBSTANTIALLY IN
THE COMING DAYS. IN FACT, BOTH LREF AND HREF ENSEMBLE
DISTRIBUTIONS INDICATE THAT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL REACH
THEIR MAXIMUM TODAY, AN INDICATOR THAT THE HOT AIRMASS COULD BE AT
ITS MOST ROBUST. WHILE STATISTICAL AND CONSENSUS AIDS ASSESS
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW COMPARED TO THIS PAST
WEEKEND, THE RECENT OVERPERFORMANCE OF OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ERRS
ON THE SIDE OF HOTTER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM TODAY TO COVER THE
AFTERNOON HEAT BETWEEN LLANO AND BASTROP COUNTIES, INCLUDING
AUSTIN, WHERE THE BLENDED MODEL LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 105F
REMAINS HIGH, ABOVE 70 PERCENT. THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
SEEING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD ELSEWHERE AS
HIGHS CONTINUE TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS REGIONWIDE.
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR, COASTAL
PLAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT THE UPPER ECHELON OF TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE AS HOT AS THIS PAST WEEKEND DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-
LEVEL DEW POINTS GIVEN A MORE SOUTHEAST MEAN FLOW, BUT THE THE
DIFFERENCE IN HEAT IS MINIMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGHOUT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 100F FOR MOST
AREAS WITHOUT CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THIS PARTICULAR STRETCH OF THE ONGOING HEATWAVE CONTINUES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STAYS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST AFTER MIDWEEK
AND ELONGATES TO THE NORTH, WHICH ALLOWS THE JET STREAM TO BOW
MORE SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NOTABLY HOT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A MINOR DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES IS NOTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CIRRIFORM CLOUDS
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND ABATE SOME OF THE HEAT.
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL MOSTLY SERVE TO BRING A FEW
SWATHS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALOFT. THE MOISTURE SUPPLY ALOFT
ISN'T GREAT, BUT THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR ONE OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS TO BRING ISOLATED RAINS. THIS WOULD BE MOST FAVORED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONSENSUS EMERGING FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO QUICKLY TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO OUR AREA
WHILE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS RESTRICTIVE TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. STILL, THE MEAGER MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING KEEP
CHANCES GENERALLY LOW AND NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE TO
APPROACHING DISTURBANCES AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE ZONALLY
DIFFUSE. THE CORE OF THE HOT AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DISPLACED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WON'T REACH
NEARLY AS HIGH AS THE EARLY WEEK, BUT HIGHS BETWEEN THE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S WILL STILL BE LIKELY WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN HOLDS
DRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE ENTIRE
AREA REMAINS UNDER STRONG RIDGING. THERE ARE SOME HINTS WE COULD
SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER,
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT SO HAVE KEPT MVFR CIGS OUT
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW. COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AFTER SUNSET FOR ALL I-35 TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOR
KDRT SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY UNDER
10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 103 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 102 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-
192-193.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ171>173-192-193.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ190.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ191-194-205>209-
220>225.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...CJM
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