472
FXUS64 KEWX 241852
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
152 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES MONDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA ALONG WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR.
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE TRENDS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO ARE
NEUTRAL TO 5 DEGREES LOWER AND WE HAVE NOTED SOME SUBTLE LOWERING
OF 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE 12Z DRT SOUNDING TODAY VS.
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO FALL, WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF WARMING
RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
BASED ON OUR CURRENT FORECAST, WE DID OPT TO ADD BLANCO COUNTY TO
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY PRODUCTS. FOR TOMORROW,
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE NBM IS SHOWING SOME LOW
PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 105 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY INTO THE AUSTIN AREA. HOWEVER, THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND ISOLATED IN NATURE. FOR NOW, WE WILL
STICK WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (AND WEDNESDAY) FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. WE DO EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOW ALOFT
TREND TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOCATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNS
THAT CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH COULD SEND A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS KEEP ANY
WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. WE WILL MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY, BUT WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SENDS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION. ANY CONVECTION THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND COULD POSE A GUSTY WIND
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL HOPEFULLY
KEEP TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD TREND BACK TO A MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
SIGNALING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM THE
ECMWF AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE ARE ON THE UPTICK AND IF THIS
CONTINUES, OUR CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE ENTIRE
AREA REMAINS UNDER STRONG RIDGING. THERE ARE SOME HINTS WE COULD
SEE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER,
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT SO HAVE KEPT MVFR CIGS OUT
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR NOW. COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AFTER SUNSET FOR ALL I-35 TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. FOR
KDRT SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY UNDER
10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 103 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 102 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-
192-193.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ171>173-192-193.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ190.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ191-194-205>209-
220>225.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...CJM
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