319
FXUS64 KEWX 250521
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A SUBTLE SHIFT OF
THE HOTTEST AIR WESTWARD, ALONG WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, FAVORS
A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION THAT HELPS LOWER HIGHS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. THE TAKEAWAY IS
STILL THAT HIGHS ABOVE 100F WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS WITHIN
THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA NEARING 105F. A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS COULD
STILL BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 105F IN LOW LYING VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE RIDGE
STAYING OVERHEAD. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLOSER TO THE RED
RIVER LATE TUESDAY SHOULD SPILL SCATTERED UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS OUR
WAY. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM THAT DISTURBANCE ON
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH. CHANCES ARE GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT AND LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT RADIATIVE
RELIEF FROM THE AFTERNOON SUN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR RIDGING TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, ALLOWING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SET UP ALOFT, REMAINS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE MODELS. THIS HAS THE BENEFIT OF BOTH SHIFTING
THE WARMEST PORTION OF THE SUMMERTIME AIRMASS AWAY FROM OUR AREA,
AND ALSO PROVIDING AN AVENUE FOR WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY TO ROUND
THE RIDGE AND SKIRT SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, BRINGING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS MOST FAVORED THURSDAY,
WHEN THE Z700 FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY ARE LOW TO MEDIUM, FROM ABOUT 20
TO 50 PERCENT. RAIN CHANCES COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY IF THIS
ENERGY STICKS AROUND AND ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING OCCURS BENEATH THE
SLIGHT MID-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ISOLATED
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BROADER
ENVIRONMENT, ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL PROBABLY BE HIGH-
BASED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS PROVIDING A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING. THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISPLACEMENT IN THE
HOTTEST AIR AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CLOUD COVER FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOWERING SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
THOUGH IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A DOWNTREND IN RAIN CHANCES TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES AS HOT AS THEY'VE BEEN. ADDITIONALLY, HIGHER DEW
POINTS COULD KEEP HEAT INDICES COMPARABLY HOT REGARDLESS OF
VARIATIONS IN THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DIFFUSE AND BROADENS,
RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE FLOW ALOFT FOR DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED
CONVECTION. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES DOWN WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, THOUGH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IMPLIES THAT A FEW ISOLATED SEABREEZE
SHOWERS COULD BREAK THROUGH ON OCCASION IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRADDLE 100F
FOR HIGHS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE. EVENING
BREEZES THAT HAD PICKED UP WITH THE SEA BREEZE ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE. WINDS TREND THE LIGHTEST EARLY TO MID-MORNING WITH
DIRECTIONS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT THE I-35 TERMINALS AND
EASTERLY AT KDRT. THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR BEYOND
SUNSET AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE
GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KTS FOR A TIME. SOME MORNING LOW
CLOUDS MAY ESTABLISH BUT FAVORS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR THE MOST, THIS MORNING AND AGAIN INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, A FEW OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PASS
AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 104 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 103 76 103 77 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 103 75 103 76 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 102 76 102 76 / 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 79 105 79 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 103 78 103 77 / 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 102 74 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 103 75 103 76 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 103 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 102 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 104 76 104 78 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ171>173-191>194-
205>209-220>225.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...62
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