837
FXUS64 KEWX 251823
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
123 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 7PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DANGEROUS
HEAT ACROSS OUR AREA IS FINALLY STARTING TO SLIDE WESTWARD. AS IT
DOES SO WE SHOULD GET A LITTLE RELIEF WITH TEMPERATURES "COOLING" A
FEW DEGREES. INSTEAD OF SEEING HIGHS NEAR 105-107 WE SHOULD SEE
HIGHS CLOSER TO AROUND 100-105 FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL
BE HOT AND A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY UNTIL 7PM
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES, HI-RES MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA AS THE RESULT OF LEFTOVER CONVECTION UP NEAR THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON THIS SCENARIO AND
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY JUST GET SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE FEEL OF THE RECENT
SCORCHING HEAT OVER THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD MID WEEK AND
POSITION ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S, THUS OPENING THE DOOR
FOR A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH A BRIEF STINT OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON FRIDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED
AND WOULD POSE A GUSTY WIND THREAT IN ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK THUS KEEPING
US BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS WE REMAIN IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY, ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE
AN UPTICK IN HUMIDITY AS WELL. THURSDAY MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED IF
STORMS DON'T PAN OUT AS WE COULD EASILY HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA
ONCE AGAIN THIS TIME WITH THE HEAT INDICES OR FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING AND EVEN EXCEEDING 108 DEGREES. FRIDAY
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO MIGRATE EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BE
POSITIONED OVER WEST TX ALSO WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS. HOWEVER WE
ARENT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES NEARLY AS HOT AS THIS PAST WEEKEND AS
THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKER ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, WE COULD SEE OUR
TYPICAL SEABREEZE KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS DUE TO THIS WEAKER RIDGE LOCATED OVERHEAD.
THIS WEEKEND IS WHEN THINGS GET A BIT MORE MURKY AS THE RIDGE WILL
BE CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD BUT FLATTENING/BROADENING OUT
AS IT DOES SO. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE
AS THEY TYPICALLY DO IN WEAKER SCENARIOS THUS WE STILL ARE EXPECTING
HOT TEMPERATURES HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. SIMILARLY THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOULD HELP TO KICK
OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE RESUME OUR TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. LOOKING
AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN HOT BUT
JUST UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY, WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WE COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP CLOSER TO SUNRISE AND BASED ON TRENDS FROM TODAY, WE HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSAT AND KSSF. WE WILL
MENTION SCT LOW CLOUDS AT AUS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CIGS FOR
NOW AS CONFIDENCE HERE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR MVFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 104 81 101 / 0 0 10 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 103 80 102 / 0 0 10 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 103 77 101 / 0 0 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 102 77 99 / 0 0 10 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 105 79 102 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 103 80 100 / 0 0 10 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 102 77 100 / 0 0 0 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 103 78 101 / 0 0 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 103 79 101 / 0 0 10 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 103 78 100 / 0 0 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 104 78 102 / 0 0 0 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ171>173-191>194-
205>209-220>225.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...PLATT
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