014
FXUS64 KEWX 261049
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY AND
A SOME LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, HOT AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
BASED ON SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, HAVE ELECTED TO
INSERT A 15% MENTIONABLE POP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR A REGION ACROSS BURNET/LLANO COUNTIES INTO BLANCO
COUNTY. HAVE ALSO BROUGHT 10% POPS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
ADDITIONALLY, HAVE ADDED POPS ON THURSDAY MORNING EVEN EARLIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, BUT DO ANTICIPATE FOR HIGHEST CHANCES
TO REMAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. LASTLY,
THERE IS SOME VIRGA (SPRINKLES EVAPORATING PRIOR TO REACHING THE
GROUND) MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY BUT DON'T
EXPECT FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH THE GROUND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY POSITIONING
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BY THE EVENING. THIS HELPS US ONLY MILDLY IN THE TEMPERATURE
DEPARTMENT AS ANOTHER HOT DAY IS STILL FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE. THE LONG-STANDING HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL PLAINS,
I-35 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. ADDITIONALLY,
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT STILL TREND DRIER AS MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY AS
IT APPROACHES OUR NORTHERN CWA. THE RIDGE JUST SLIGHTLY SHIFTS
FURTHER WEST ON THURSDAY BRINGING ALL OF THE AREA UNDER THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A FEW DISTURBANCES MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. MOISTURE AND
PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THIS FEATURE, THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE
TO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED AND WOULD POSE A GUSTY WIND
THREAT IN ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS. DUE TO RAIN CHANCES AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE
A FEW DEGREES KEEPING US BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER,
DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN STORMS DEVELOP, SOME AREAS COULD STILL
BE CLOSE TO THE 103 MARK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OR HAVE HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACH 108 DEGREES DUE TO INCREASED HUMIDITY, SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. THERE MAY BE LESSER COVERAGE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DUE TO THE SLIGHT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RELAX SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH THE MID
90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES WILL STILL BE COMMON EACH DAY DEPENDING
ON LOCATION. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BUMP UP HEAT INDEX
VALUES, HOWEVER, SO THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT
PRODUCTS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WEAK RIDGING THIS
WEEKEND IS INTERRUPTED BY A DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING BACK SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA AND KEEP HIGHS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERALLY PREVAIL. HAVE
NOT SEEN MUCH LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT QUITE YET BUT STILL HAVE A
CHANCE FOR SOME FORMATION AFTER SUNRISE. KEPT MENTION OF FEW LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITHIN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GREATER CLOUDS AND THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS COULD WORK INTO THE REGION OUT OF THE
NORTH FROM LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN
FEATURE SOME SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A STRAY STORM. ELECTED TO ADD
VCSH TO KAUS BEYOND 05Z. WINDS MAINTAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS NOT
BULLISH ON GUSTS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SEA BREEZE FOR LATER THIS
EVENING AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 104 79 102 77 / 10 10 30 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 103 78 102 76 / 10 10 40 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 103 77 101 75 / 10 10 40 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 101 77 99 74 / 10 20 40 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 79 102 78 / 0 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 103 78 101 76 / 10 20 30 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 102 76 100 74 / 0 10 40 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 102 77 101 75 / 10 10 40 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 104 78 101 77 / 10 10 40 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 103 78 100 78 / 10 10 30 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 104 78 102 78 / 0 10 30 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-191>194-
205>209-220>225.
UPDATE...62
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...62
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