767
FXUS64 KEWX 261920
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
220 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 217 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR LLANO AND
BURNET COUNTIES.
- THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY AND
SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, HOT AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
LOOKING AT SPC MESOANALYSIS WE CAN SEE THAT THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND CONTINUES EVER SO SLOWLY
PROPAGATING WESTWARD. AS SUCH, HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN
ON A NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND WITH MANY STILL IN THE UPPER 90S
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING WHICH IS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THEN
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN MOST WERE ALREADY HITTING THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES
PUSHING FURTHER WEST REDUCING ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES
UNTIL 7PM TONIGHT. DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE, WE
SHOULD SEE MORE MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. THOUGH
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 100-102 DEGREES IT'S THE MOISTURE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE THINGS FEEL OPPRESSIVE HEAT WISE. WE COULD SEE
HEAT INDICES FROM 108 TO UPWARDS OF 113 DEGREES ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THIS WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT
ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES, HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
DRIER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES
WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES OUR
NORTHERN CWA. WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST ON
THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE ALL OF OUR AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AS SUCH WE COULD SEE A FEW DISTURBANCES DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE HIGH-BASED
AND WOULD POSE A GUSTY WIND THREAT IN ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FRIDAY THE RIDGE LOOKS TO MIGRATE EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BE
POSITIONED OVER WEST TX ALSO WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS. HOWEVER WE
ARENT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES NEARLY AS HOT AS THIS PAST WEEKEND AS
THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKER ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, WE COULD SEE OUR
TYPICAL SEABREEZE KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS DUE TO THIS WEAKER RIDGE LOCATED OVERHEAD.
THIS WEEKEND IS WHEN THINGS GET A BIT MORE TRICKY AS THE RIDGE WILL
BE CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION EASTWARD BUT FLATTENING/BROADENING OUT
AS IT DOES SO. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS RIDGE
AS THEY TYPICALLY DO IN WEAKER SCENARIOS THUS WE STILL ARE EXPECTING
HOT TEMPERATURES HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. THIS WEAKER RIDGE MAY GET INTERRUPTED BY A DISTURBANCE
MOVING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
BRING BACK SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA AND ALSO HELP KEEP
HIGHS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. SIMILARLY THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
SHOULD HELP TO KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AS WE RESUME OUR TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND STAYS
THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF
BROKEN LOW LEVELS CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 102 78 99 / 10 40 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 80 102 77 99 / 10 40 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 101 76 99 / 10 40 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 99 75 96 / 20 40 40 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 102 78 101 / 0 10 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 101 77 97 / 30 30 40 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 75 98 / 0 30 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 101 76 99 / 10 40 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 101 77 99 / 10 40 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 100 78 99 / 10 40 30 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 102 78 101 / 0 30 30 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171-172.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ173-192-193.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ191-194-205>209-
220>225.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...17
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