695
FXUS64 KEWX 271741
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY AND
SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, HOT AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY
WEATHER PERSISTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO VERY GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD TODAY,
EVENTUALLY CENTERING ITSELF NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA BOARDER.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THIS PATTERN
ALLOWING SOME DISTURBANCES TO RIDE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THIS BRINGS BOTH INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. INCREASED MOISTURE AND
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES WILL ALLOW FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THESE
LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY IMPEDE ON FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES, BUT ANY WHICH WAY YOU LOOK AT IT,
SUMMER-TIME HEAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
BACK TO RAIN CHANCES: GUIDANCE SHOWS A DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA AS EARLY AS THIS
MORNING, AS EVIDENT FROM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE
WACO AREA AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION. HOWEVER, THE
HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED MEANING NOT EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE RAIN. AT
LEAST SOME ACTIVITY COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT LIKELY, THOUGH STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WIND AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, THE RETURN OF SOME SEABREEZE
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
SHOULD DECREASE A FEW DEGREES, THOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
STILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH THE 105-108 DEGREE MARK
FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK EAST,
THOUGH THIS FEATURE DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE INDICATES A DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE ISN'T GREAT
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OR ITS STRENGTH. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING BACK
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA, PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR, AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLY HOT THAN
COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
FORECAST PACKAGE LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DELAY START TIME FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR I-35
TAF SITES. OTHERWISE KEPT VRB WINDS AS PREVAILING AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL/SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS FORM WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO ERRATIC WINDS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. ADDITIONALLY, WE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AS THE CLOUD
DECK EXPANDS FROM ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. EVEN AFTER THE BOUNDARY PASSES WE WILL STILL SEE LIGHT
AND VRB WINDS UNTIL AROUND 16/18Z TOMORROW. BY THIS TIME WE SHOULD
FINALLY SEE A MORE EASTERLY PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. FOR KDRT
HAVE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR WEST BUT IF THEY DO OCCUR THEN IT WOULDN'T BE
UNTIL AROUND 01Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 102 78 101 / 20 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 101 77 100 / 20 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 101 76 100 / 30 10 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 75 98 / 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 102 78 100 / 30 20 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 77 100 / 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 75 98 / 30 20 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 101 76 100 / 20 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 101 77 100 / 40 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 100 77 99 / 30 20 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 102 78 101 / 30 20 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ173-191>194-
205>209-220>225.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...CJM
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