615
FXUS64 KEWX 281810
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
110 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 106 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE
HOT AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
STARTING TO SEE SOME CUMULUS APPEAR ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S ALONG WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE
AREA AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAIN.
SEVERAL LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO
UNFOLDING/STARTING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH MOST ACTIVITY
WANING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS IN DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 70S. THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE AGAIN FOR SATURDAY (90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES) AND THERE
MAY BE A FEW SPOTS THAT APPROACH OR EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED THUS FOR THOSE REASONS WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ON ISSUING
ANY HEAT ADVISORIES. IT WILL HOWEVER STILL REMAIN QUITE HOT
ACROSS THE AREA SO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE SAFE HEAT SAFETY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES PROPAGATING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST
AND EVENTUALLY UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE WHICH THEN ALLOWS IT TO
FLATTEN/ELONGATE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IT'S STILL QUITE A BIT UNCLEAR IF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT
OUR AREA BRINGING WITH IT SOME RAIN/STORM CHANCES AS MODELS DON'T
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS JUST YET. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS OUR
TYPICAL SEABREEZE PATTERN LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN BY TUESDAY MAINLY
AFFECTING AREAS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. FOR EVERYONE ELSE EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED HOT WEATHER PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND
BEGIN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER, MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTH. ALL AREA SITES HAVE A PROB30
GROUP FROM AROUND 20Z TO 01Z SATURDAY. AFTERWARD, LITTLE TO NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THEN, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW
RETURN TO ALL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 100 76 100 / 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 99 76 99 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 74 99 / 30 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 99 77 99 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 76 99 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 73 97 / 20 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 74 99 / 30 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 99 76 99 / 20 10 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 98 76 98 / 30 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 74 100 / 30 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...17
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