851
FXUS64 KEWX 091830
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
130 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AS WELL
AS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES SHRINK BACK TO THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME
CONCERNS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CONUS
AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST HAS ALLOWED
MORE MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. A COUPLE OF
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ARRIVING
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WHICH IS AIDING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO FAVOR THE COASTAL PLAINS, WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHER, AND
THE HILL COUNTRY, WHERE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED, AS
THE FOCI FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A FEW SLOW-MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF
AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY.
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS FROM THE ADDED MOISTURE AND CIRRUS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES
FOR SOME, BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND THE ADDED HUMIDITY WILL
STILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY HEAT FOR THE AREAS THAT STAY DRY. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-108F RANGE FOR MANY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO EASE UP THROUGH THE WEEK, LEAVING A WEAKNESS
OVER OUR REGION. THIS SETUP TENDS TO BE LESS RESTRICTIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF POPUP SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER, GIVEN A LACK OF
NOTEWORTHY DISTURBANCES, RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ARE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY, BUT THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE
FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEAKENS ITS ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY
WELL OUTSIDE OF THE REGION.
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AS RESTRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
US PULLS A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS
MAY RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
AND PEAK INDEX VALUES NEAR OR MEETING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RESTRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IT'S BEEN A HOT START TO SEPTEMBER FOR THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTED NEXT WEEK WON'T CHANGE THAT MUCH.
HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VERY LITTLE OPERATIONAL CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS IT IS
A SIMILAR SETUP AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE BUT MAY SWITCH TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT AT AUS AND BY MID-MORNING AT SAT AND SSF. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED AT SAT AND SSF AFTER 09Z AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OTHER
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 99 77 100 / 0 10 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 98 76 100 / 0 10 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 75 99 / 10 10 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 74 97 / 0 10 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 76 99 / 0 10 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 98 75 99 / 10 10 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 98 75 99 / 0 10 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 98 76 99 / 0 20 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 97 77 99 / 10 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 99 77 100 / 10 10 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
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