327
FXUS64 KEWX 101733
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1233 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
- THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LOW
RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH CONCERNS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. THE COASTAL PLAINS
WILL BE FIRST TO SEE THE CONVECTION AS SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING. THE 10/00Z RUN OF THE HRRR
SHOWS LOWER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE IS SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A LITTLE LOWER COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WILL STILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND 30% FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD
HELP SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR,
HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LOWER AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO 20%. SOME MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY, WITH WEAK,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH. WE MAY NEED
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LATE EVENING CONVECTION
MOVING OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY. AS OF
NOW, CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. A FEW SPOTS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS MAY BRIEFLY SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
108 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN
SHOWING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY SETTING UP
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THERE WILL BE A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE. WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE, WHICH WILL LIKELY YIELD A DEGREE OR TWO UPWARD TREND
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT SOME ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION
REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER AND MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO DEVELOP. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH ABOVE NORMAL
WARMTH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
PRIMARY FOCUS WAS TO KEEP SOUTHWESTERLIES IN PLACE AT AUS, SAT,
AND SSF THROUGH 21Z AS WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN LAMP
GUIDANCE. WINDS SHOULD SWING MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE WORKS INLAND. A FLIP BACK TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AT THE I-35 SITES
WITH PERHAPS FEW STRATUS AT 2000 FT. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 100 77 102 / 0 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 100 77 101 / 0 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 76 100 / 0 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 75 98 / 10 20 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 102 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 99 78 101 / 10 20 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 75 100 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 77 100 / 0 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 99 78 99 / 10 10 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 99 77 100 / 10 10 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 101 78 102 / 10 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...MMM
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