410
FXUS64 KEWX 121024
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
524 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT SATURDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
- MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TEXAS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND WHILE THE NBM POPS ARE VERY LOW,
WE HAVE OPTED TO ADD A MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. AT
LEAST A FEW OF THE HI-RES MODELS HINT AT SOME LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY FOR A POSSIBLE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW FOR NOW AND
WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 106 DEGREES. THE NBM
NUMBERS LOOKED TOO LOW, SO WE OPTED TO BUMP FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE
NBM FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY EASE SLIGHTLY, WE
COULD SEE SOME PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ON
SUNDAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EVENTUALLY EXPANDS
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR FORECAST MOSTLY DRY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VERY REPETITIVE FORECAST EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY, EXCEPT, WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN NEAR THE TERMINAL VCNTYS THIS EVENING.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL COLLECT FOR A BROKEN DECK UP AND DOWN I-35,
BUT WITH THEM USUALLY ONLY LASTING AN HOUR OR TWO, WILL KEEP THE
DECK SCT AND ADJUST LATER. WIND TRENDS SHOULD BE NEAR PERSISTENCE
WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING MAINLY FROM 00Z TO 05Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 104 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 104 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 102 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 104 79 102 78 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 102 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 102 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 102 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 101 77 99 76 / 20 20 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 102 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 103 79 102 77 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ173-191>194-205>209-220>225.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...18
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