354
FXUS64 KEWX 121736
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1236 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT SATURDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
- MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TEXAS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AND WHILE THE NBM POPS ARE VERY LOW,
WE HAVE OPTED TO ADD A MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. AT
LEAST A FEW OF THE HI-RES MODELS HINT AT SOME LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREAS FARTHER NORTH
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY FOR A POSSIBLE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW FOR NOW AND
WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 106 DEGREES. THE NBM
NUMBERS LOOKED TOO LOW, SO WE OPTED TO BUMP FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE
NBM FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY EASE SLIGHTLY, WE
COULD SEE SOME PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ON
SUNDAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EVENTUALLY EXPANDS
WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP OUR FORECAST MOSTLY DRY ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AT AUS BY 21Z WHILE THEY REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AT
SAT AND SSF THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE PROB30 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AUS, SAT, AND SSF
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
TREND IS YOUR FRIEND AND MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
FIRST AT SAT AND SSF FOLLOWED BY AUS THEN EVENTUALLY DRT FOR A
SHORT TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 101 78 100 / 20 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 100 77 99 / 20 20 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 76 99 / 20 20 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 74 97 / 20 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 77 99 / 20 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 100 75 99 / 20 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 76 99 / 20 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 100 77 99 / 20 20 0 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 99 78 99 / 20 10 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 101 78 100 / 20 20 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ173-191>194-
205>209-220>225.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...MMM
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