052
FXUS64 KEWX 150611
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
111 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS, WILLIAMSON,
AND TRAVIS COUNTIES TODAY FROM NOON TO 7 PM.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK,
SPREADING FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY.
- HUMID MORNING CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES. HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE
EAST BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK INTO THE 108-110 DEGREE MARK
NOTABLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THOUGH VALUES FROM 105-108 DEGREES ARE STILL NOTED
ELSEWHERE. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FROM NOON
TO 7 PM FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH ALL SHOULD TAKE HEAT
PRECAUTIONS AS THE SUMMER ISN'T OVER YET. WE MAY FINALLY BE ABLE
TO BREAK THE HEAT ADVISORY STREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN HIGHS EXPECTED, THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ONE JUST
YET.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND INCREASES BY THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 20-
30 MPH AT TIMES BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. A DECREASE IN WINDS
IS NOTED ON WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A WESTWARD DRIFTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ELONGATE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF AND A
TROUGH TO THE WEST EVENTUALLY FORCE THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, INCREASED
MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK MOST NOTABLY THURSDAY
AND AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURGE OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE RAIN CHANCES EXTEND OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER OUT OF THE
AREA OR LOW DURING THIS TIME. TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES COULD IMPACT TEXAS AND COULD BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND A TUTT LOW
MOVING NW INTO DEEP SOUTH TX AND INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN HELP WITH ONSHORE WINDS TODAY AS IT HAD
ALREADY DONE SO SUNDAY. DRT/SAT/SSF ALL STAND A CHANCE TO SEE A
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TODAY, AS A FEW REPORTS OF 28-29 KNOT GUSTS
WERE NOTED AT DRT AND SAT.
THE GUSTY WINDS ARE SENDING OVERNIGHT GULF MOISTURE DEEP INTO
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THIS WILL ELEVATE THE RH
AND ALLOW FOR SOME LONG RESIDENCE TIMES OF MVFR CIGS, SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE MIGHT EXPECT IN THE LATE SPRING. VFR SKIES SHOULD TAKE
OVER BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 16Z AND STAY VFR TO CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
THE WELL MIXED AIR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CONCENTRATED
UPDRAFTS AND WE ARE SHOWING NO SIGNALS FOR SHOWERS TODAY, EVEN
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AREAS TO THE EAST. MORE MVFR CIGS ARE
PROJECTED FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
MINIMUM RH WILL BE LOWEST TODAY IN THE WEST WITH THE RIO GRANDE
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND PEAKS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, BRINGING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED, SO MORE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LEADING TO ISOLATED WETTING RAINS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK ONLY MOVING INLAND THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
WIND EASES SLIGHTLY AFTER TODAY BUT GUSTY WIND MAY STILL BE SEEN
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE SEABREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 102 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 101 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 77 99 77 / 10 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 102 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ173-192>194-209-225.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page