729
FXUS64 KEWX 151745
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS, WILLIAMSON,
AND TRAVIS COUNTIES TODAY FROM NOON TO 7 PM.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK,
SPREADING FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY.
- HUMID MORNING CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES. HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE
EAST BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK INTO THE 108-110 DEGREE MARK
NOTABLY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THOUGH VALUES FROM 105-108 DEGREES ARE STILL NOTED
ELSEWHERE. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FROM NOON
TO 7 PM FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THOUGH ALL SHOULD TAKE HEAT
PRECAUTIONS AS THE SUMMER ISN'T OVER YET. WE MAY FINALLY BE ABLE
TO BREAK THE HEAT ADVISORY STREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN HIGHS EXPECTED, THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ONE JUST
YET.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND INCREASES BY THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 20-
30 MPH AT TIMES BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. A DECREASE IN WINDS
IS NOTED ON WEDNESDAY.
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A WESTWARD DRIFTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ELONGATE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF AND A
TROUGH TO THE WEST EVENTUALLY FORCE THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, INCREASED
MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK MOST NOTABLY THURSDAY
AND AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURGE OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES MOVES
INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE RAIN CHANCES EXTEND OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER OUT OF THE
AREA OR LOW DURING THIS TIME. TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES COULD IMPACT TEXAS AND COULD BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES, BUT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES. WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS RETURN JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK (10Z) FOR KSAT
AND KSSF. FOR KAUS CONFIDENCE ISN'T QUITE AS HIGH FOR SEEING MVFR
CIGS SO HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO JUST AFTER DAWN (13Z) UNTIL LATE
MORNING. AFTERWARD EXPECT VFR CIGS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SWITCHING TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR KDRT ALONG WITH MAINLY
PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 74 95 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 101 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 99 77 97 / 0 10 0 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 99 78 97 / 0 0 0 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ173-192>194-209-
225.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...CJM
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