122
FXUS64 KEWX 161052
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
552 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK,
SPREADING FURTHER INLAND ON THURSDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN
TUESDAY OVER SOME LOCATIONS) ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, HOWEVER, STILL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND UP TO 103 DEGREES
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON REACHING THE 100 TO 107 OVER MOST AREAS. A
BRIEF MOMENT OF HIGHER VALUES CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, BETWEEN CLOUDS AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THOSE AREAS, I HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY.
BY THURSDAY, HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK LOW
TO MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES OF
RAIN (20 TO 50 PERCENT) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND AREAS ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY LOOKING AROUND THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND UP TO 100.EXPECTED BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ABOUT 15 M
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
BY FRIDAY, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE ACTIVITY IS FAVORED. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES
BACK INTO OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND TO LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWING THIS FEATURE SLOWING AND STAYING ACROSS THE GULF NORTHERN
WATER AND THEN MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. SO,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS FAR AS HOW MUCH RAIN WILL GET NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, OUR CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH WHEN IT COMES TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL CLIMATE VALUES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL SOFTEN UP OVER THE NEXT DAY LEADING TO A LESS
GUSTY ENVIRONMENT THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY. A FEW EVENING GUSTS COULD
STILL EXCEED 20 KNOTS OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM THE SEABREEZE.
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS PERSISTENT AND THE MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM FOR ANOTHER DAY, BUT PERHAPS DISPERSING A
BIT FASTER THIS MORNING. LATE PERIOD LOW CLOUDS FOR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING LOOK LESS CERTAIN AS THE NAM MOS DATA AND THE
BLENDED POPULATE SCHEME IN OUR GRIDS DIDN'T PICK UP ON ANY. NO
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO REACH I-35
BUT LATER CONSIDERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR AROUND 30 HOURS OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 78 100 76 / 0 0 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 77 99 75 / 0 0 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 98 74 / 0 0 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 96 73 / 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 99 75 / 0 0 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 98 75 / 0 0 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 99 74 / 10 0 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 77 98 75 / 10 0 30 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 99 77 97 77 / 0 0 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 77 99 77 / 10 0 20 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...18
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