232
FXUS64 KEWX 020550
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1250 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
DECREASE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A 500MB LOW OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF TX. AT THE
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR
CWA. THIS IS DISRUPTING THE FLOW WITH SOUTHEASTERLIES CONTINUING
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AROUND THE
FRONT CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. THIS MORNING'S SOUNDINGS AT DRT
AND FWD SHOW PW ABOVE 2 INCHES AGAIN WHICH IS IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, BUT THE TRAILING TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TX. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS. WITH
THE HIGH PW AIRMASS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THIS AREA. WE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES. THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. THE FRONT WILL EXIT OUR CWA FRIDAY MORNING AND
STALL ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE MODERATE AND THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, THERE WILL BE
CONTINUING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE MODERATE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL MOVE BACK OVER TEXAS BRINGING DRY WEATHER BACK. WITH
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START
OFF COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S SATURDAY. FROM THERE
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY
TUESDAY AND STAYING THERE. THESE ARE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
ON TRACK. MADE A COUPLE ADJUSTMENTS TO REFINE WHEN I-35 SITES
WILL SEE CONVECTION. STILL FEEL THE BEST TIME IS NOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY KSAT HAS BEEN DROPPING IN AND
OUT OF LIFR SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR SHOULD RETURN BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CIGS BRIEFLY MAKING A RETURN BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO
MVFR. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SCT TO ISO SHRAS AND TSRAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THESE SITES AS WELL. FOR KDRT VFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN REFINED THE PROB30 PRECIP
CHANCES TO TOMORROW EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND
AS NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 71 81 70 / 70 70 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 80 70 82 70 / 70 60 60 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 69 83 70 / 70 60 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 68 76 68 / 70 70 50 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 67 78 68 / 20 70 60 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 69 79 69 / 70 70 50 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 82 69 / 70 60 30 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 69 82 69 / 70 60 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 71 84 71 / 70 40 70 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 71 82 71 / 70 60 40 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 72 84 72 / 70 60 40 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-186>194-203>209-
218>225-228.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...CJM
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