333
FXUS64 KEWX 020627
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
127 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
- REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY OR I-35 CORRIDOR, BUT UNCERTAIN.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
DECREASE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A RATHER TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY AS HI-
RES GUIDANCE IS IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR/WITHIN THE HILL COUNTRY. THE RRFS
AND HRRR HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVE IN FORMING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
BETWEEN 04-06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER,
THE WOFS AND OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
REDEVELOPMENT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, CONVECTION IN THE CRP CWA MAY
HOLD THE KEYS TO WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB IS STILL
NOTED PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS. IF CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST
WEAKENS A BIT, THAT MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER
INLAND.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY BRINGS SOME UNCERTAINTIES, BUT WITH
500MB TROUGHING STILL IN PLAY AND PLENTY OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. A LEVEL 2 OF 4 (SLIGHT) RISK FOR
FLOODING IS IN PLACE AND THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS, ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AND IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH TO GET RUNOFF. SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
TEXAS, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED,
HOWEVER, THE FLOODING THREAT LOOKS LOWER AS DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS KICKED FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
ON SUNDAY, PWATS START TO NOTABLY TREND DOWN AS NORTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB INCREASES AS THE 500MB TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
AND WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RESUMES. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE STILL, DESPITE DECREASING MOISTURE, PRIMARILY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY MONDAY, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 80S EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
ON TRACK. MADE A COUPLE ADJUSTMENTS TO REFINE WHEN I-35 SITES
WILL SEE CONVECTION. STILL FEEL THE BEST TIME IS NOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY KSAT HAS BEEN DROPPING IN AND
OUT OF LIFR SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR SHOULD RETURN BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CIGS BRIEFLY MAKING A RETURN BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO
MVFR. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SCT TO ISO SHRAS AND TSRAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THESE SITES AS WELL. FOR KDRT VFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN REFINED THE PROB30 PRECIP
CHANCES TO TOMORROW EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND
AS NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 71 81 70 / 70 70 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 80 70 82 70 / 70 60 60 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 69 83 70 / 70 60 50 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 68 76 68 / 70 70 50 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 67 78 68 / 20 70 60 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 69 79 69 / 70 70 50 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 82 69 / 70 60 30 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 69 82 69 / 70 60 50 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 71 84 71 / 70 40 70 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 71 82 71 / 70 60 40 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 72 84 72 / 70 60 40 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-186>194-203>209-
218>225-228.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...CJM
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