489
FXUS64 KEWX 022332
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) PERSIST DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE ENDING INTO AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
- COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPERATURES
MODIFY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THIS MORNING HAS HAD A NEARLY STATIONARY CORRIDOR OF RAIN MOSTLY
PARALLEL TO THE US HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR, PRODUCING OCCASIONAL RAIN
RATES WITHIN THE 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RANGE. THIS HAS AND COULD
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
LOCATIONS THAT ARE MOST SENSITIVE FROM HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION AND A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS VERY MOIST AS WELL WITH PWATS UP INTO THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH
RANGE. WITH THIS MOISTURE, SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OR
SLIGHT FLARE UPS IN ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY MODEST DAYTIME
HEATING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE THEN LATER INTO THE EVENING AND
TONIGHT INDICATES THAT THE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT COULD BECOME A BIT
LESS ORGANIZED AND PIVOT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE FRONT AND MID-
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STARTS TO BECOME MORE SEPARATED IN DISTANCE.
THIS IS AS THE FRONT REGAINS SOME SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL AXIS RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE RAIN CHANCES, BUT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN MORE LIMITED AND SPOTTY COMPARED TO TODAY.
ACTIVITY WOULD BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY ANY MODEST DAYTIME HEATING ON
SATURDAY. THE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TREND FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHILE LOWS LOOK TO GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID 70S AT NIGHT ELSEWHERE.
WITH ACTIVE FLOOD ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING, WE'LL LET THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. UP TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF ADDITIONAL
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR SENSITIVE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SOME SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES LINGER FOR SUNDAY WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS
BEFORE PWATS THEN DECLINE WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR RETURNING
SUNSHINE AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH GREATER
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM, APPROACHING 90 DEGREES FOR
SOME LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WIND SPEEDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MOST OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA HAS CEASED. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION, SO LOW CIGS SHOULD
EXPAND TONIGHT. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA, AND A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS PLAUSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS
GENERALLY 7-12 KT. SOME INCREASE IN RA IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A
BAND OF MOISTURE DRIFTS WEST, MAINLY WEST OF A KBMQ TO KHDO LINE,
INCLUDING KDRT AND VICINITY. LINGERING RA/SHRA MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY NEAR KDRT, THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER NEAR
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF AFTER 21Z CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 83 70 83 / 40 30 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 83 70 82 / 40 30 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 71 83 / 40 30 30 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 78 67 80 / 60 60 40 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 80 68 84 / 70 70 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 81 69 81 / 50 40 40 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 70 84 / 60 30 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 70 83 / 40 40 30 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 85 71 82 / 20 40 40 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 83 71 82 / 40 30 30 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 84 72 84 / 40 30 30 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-186>194-
203>209-218>225-228.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...TRAN
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