297
FXUS64 KEWX 031027
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) PERSIST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
ENDING INTO AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
- COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODIFY THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ENDURE TWO MORE DAYS OF ON/OFF RAIN CHANCES
BEFORE DRIER, LESS MUGGY, AND PLEASANT DAYS RETURN MONDAY AND
BEYOND. ALOFT, A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION AND IN COMBINATION WITH PWATS UP BETWEEN
1.8 AND 2.0 WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM TODAY OR TOMORROW. THE LATEST HI-RES
CAMS HAVE BEEN ONTO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS CONCENTRATING OVER
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOSTLY BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING, BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HOW WARM WE WILL GET. ON SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES START TO SLIP
SOUTH OF OUR REGION, BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
BY MONDAY, NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 700MB WILL BE THE NORM,
MEANING PWATS SHOULD DROP QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER
WITH MOST SITES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. BY LATE WEEK, MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DISTURBANCE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE.
HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES AND WHETHER AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOLLOWS IS
YET TO BE SEEN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE WEST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS THIS MORNING
AND MAY IMPACT KDRT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN POSSIBLY I-35
TERMINALS LATER IN THE PERIOD. CEILINGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS BUT
HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY DELAYED. MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT KAUS THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE OTHER TERMINALS BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR BEFORE LOW
CEILINGS REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WIND
PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD BECOMING GUSTY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 70 83 70 / 50 20 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 70 83 70 / 50 20 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 70 83 70 / 40 10 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 68 80 67 / 60 20 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 68 85 68 / 50 30 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 69 81 69 / 60 20 20 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 69 84 69 / 50 10 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 69 83 69 / 40 10 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 71 84 71 / 40 20 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 71 83 71 / 40 10 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 72 84 72 / 30 10 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...27
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