151
FXUS64 KEWX 031813
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
113 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- SCATTERED SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND (~10-40% RAIN CHANCE).
- DRIER AIR ARRIVES, ENDS RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MIDWEEK, AND WILL
HELP PROVIDE COOLER MORNINGS, AND FAIR AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S FOR MOST.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES (~15-20%) POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS
RANGING FROM 1.6 OUT WEST TO AROUND 2.2 INCHES TO THE EAST. WHILE
THE FRONT HAS BECOME ILL DEFINED AT THIS POINT, A MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS
HAS HELPED TO GENERATE RAIN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HEAVIER POCKETS FROM LLANO INTO MASON COUNTIES. IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS, THIS ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND LIFTED NORTHWARD
INTO THE SAN ANGELO AND FORT WORTH CWAS. THE FOCUS FOR ANY SPOTTY
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS WITHIN THE
CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW FOR LIMITED ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP GENERATE ACTIVITY. ANY HEAVIER
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING AND A QUICK HALF INCH OR MORE
WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO FADE THIS EVENING
BEYOND SUNSET. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, IS
FORECAST TO SEE POSSIBLE REFORMATION OF SCATTERED LIGHT, PERHAPS
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE, SHOWERS ALONG THAT MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
MOSTLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY THEN FADES
GOING LATER INTO THE DAY, ESPECIALLY INTO AND THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR THEN STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANT
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOCAL
TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 70S AND 80S THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
DRIER AIR ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY TO MIDWEEK
WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOW TO MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MONDAY MAY STILL HAVE ENOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUDINESS AND A STRAY SHOWER IN THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU, OTHERWISE RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END WITH SUNSHINE
BECOMING FAR MORE PREVALENT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN A MORE
REFRESHING AIRMASS AND FEEL FEATURING COOLER MORNINGS AND MILD
AFTERNOONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THE AFTERNOON HIGHS STAY IN THE 80S
FOR THE MOST PART WHILE THE MORNING LOWS DIP DOWN AS LOW AS THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.
LOW RAIN CHANCES (~15-20%) ENTER THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE DIVERGES
REGARDING THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION AND ALSO INTERACTION BETWEEN A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT MAY ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
STATE AND A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN GYRE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE MORNING BUT DO SLOWLY CLIMB FROM MIDWEEK AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARM WITH SEVERAL NEARING OR REACHING
THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY AREAS OF DZ/BR
WITH 3-7SM VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR KAUS/KSAT BUT HAVE REMAINED
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. OPTED TO KEEP SHRA PROB30S AT
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 18Z TAFS, BUT MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER COVERAGE AND PROB30S MAY BE REMOVED IF
TRENDS CONTINUE. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KDRT TO KSAT LINE WHILE MVFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT KAUS. LOW CIGS SHOULD BE AT THEIR
SMALLEST EXTENT AROUND 00Z BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPAND
AGAIN. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 81 70 84 / 20 20 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 82 69 85 / 20 20 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 82 69 85 / 10 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 79 65 81 / 30 30 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 84 69 85 / 10 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 81 67 84 / 20 20 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 84 70 86 / 10 10 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 82 68 85 / 20 20 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 82 70 86 / 20 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 81 71 84 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 83 72 86 / 10 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...TRAN
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