908
FXUS64 KEWX 040510
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1210 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- SCATTERED SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION TODAY (~10-40% RAIN CHANCE).
- DRIER AIR ARRIVES, ENDS RAIN CHANCES EARLY TO MIDWEEK, PROVIDING COOLER
MORNINGS, AND A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES (~15-20%) POSSIBLE LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER GLOOMY DAY FOR MOST OF TODAY
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUN TRYING TO BREAK OUT TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A VERY ILL DEFINED FRONT REMAINS OVER THE TX COAST
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO BE POOLED INTO OUR AREA AS THE
FRONT REMAINS CLOSE BY. WE CONTINUE TO SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 1.8 TO 2.3
INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER PWATS CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND COASTAL PLAINS
AREAS. THERE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY
AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN PEAKS OUT WE COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING BY THE MORNING AND TAPERING OFF BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE RIGHT NOW REMAINS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SHIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TONIGHT WE
SHOULD START TO FINALLY SEE DIRER AIR STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN
FROM THE NORTH THUS PUSHING THE FRONT AND MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR
AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS DRIER AIR WILL SHUT OFF RAIN CHANCES
AND THUS A DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY AND RATHER PLEASANT DAY CAN BE
EXPECTED.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS TODAY SLIGHTLY WARMER AS
WE SEE SLIGHTLY MORE SUN LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
COMMON. BY MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS A BIT WARMER WITH MOST
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN OUR WESTERN
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
OUR PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES AS NORTHERLY FLOW IS SEEN IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO A CONTINUED
DRYING OUT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
MORE REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH COOLER MORNINGS AND MILDER AFTERNOONS
ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. DAILY HIGHS STAY IN THE 80S FOR THE
WHILE THE MORNING LOWS DIP DOWN AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS BEGINS TO
CHANGE BY LATE WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE. FOR NOW
THIS IS A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO PUT ANY CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR
MODEL SOLUTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DISTURBANCE
AND WATCH TO SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS AND PLAYS OUT AND WHAT IMPACTS IF
ANY THIS WOULD BRING TO OUR LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY DRY FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR I-35 TERMINALS WITH
HI-RES GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR THIS NEAR KAUS WHERE A
PROB30 HAS BEEN INCLUDED. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY WILL BUILD OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY SPREADING WEST IMPACTING KDRT AFTER SUNRISE.
CEILINGS LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY HOW QUICKLY VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, MOST BREEZY IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 71 86 66 / 40 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 69 85 65 / 40 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 69 85 65 / 20 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 66 83 61 / 50 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 68 86 66 / 50 20 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 84 63 / 40 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 70 87 65 / 20 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 69 86 64 / 30 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 69 86 66 / 40 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 72 86 68 / 20 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 72 87 68 / 20 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page