533
FXUS64 KEWX 050513
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1213 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- PLEASANT WEATHER EARLY TO MIDWEEK WITH LOW HUMIDITY, INCLUDING WARM
AFTERNOONS AND COOLER MORNINGS.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES (~15-25%) RETURN LATE WEEK, MAINLY PEAK
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WE SHOULD START TO FINALLY SEE DRIER AIR BEGIN TO
WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH THUS PUSHING THE FRONT THATS BEEN
NEAR US THIS WEEKEND AWAY ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. BY THIS MORNING DRIER AIR WILL ALL BUT SHUT OFF RAIN CHANCES AND
THUS A DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY AND RATHER PLEASANT DAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS TODAY SLIGHTLY WARMER AS
WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE SUN LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS
UPPER 80S WITH EVEN SOME 90S OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE POSSIBLE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH UPPER 60S COMMON. BY
TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS A BIT WARMER
WITH MOST REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
OUR PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES AS NORTHERLY FLOW IS SEEN IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO A CONTINUED
DRYING OUT ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH MORE REFRESHING AIRMASS THEN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH COOLER MORNINGS AND MILDER AFTERNOONS ALONG WITH MUCH
LOWER HUMIDITY. DAILY HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH THE MORNING LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE BY LATE WEEK AS A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE TRIES
ESTABLISHING ITSELF LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE
CONCHO VALLEY. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LOW END
RAIN CHANCES (~15-25%) ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, THIS MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BE AIDED BY SOME INFLUENCE AND MOISTURE FROM
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW THAT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
MONITORING THIS POTENTIAL AND HAS PROVIDED UP TO A MEDIUM (50%)
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. CURRENT STEERING FLOWS SUGGEST THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WOULD ALLOW OUR
AREA TO REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH ONLY TEMPERATURES REALLY
BEING THE MAJOR INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW IT IS STILL A
BIT TOO FAR OUT TO PUT ANY CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR MODEL
SOLUTION. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
DISTURBANCE AND WATCH TO SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS AND WHAT IMPACTS IF
ANY THIS WOULD BRING TO OUR LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND ERODE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE. CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND CLEAR DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THIS EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, EASING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING GUSTY
AT I-35 TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. NORTHERLY WIND REMAINS LIGHTER
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDING AT KDRT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 67 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 66 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 62 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 68 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 64 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 66 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 67 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 68 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...27
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