100
FXUS64 KEWX 051831
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
131 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- PLEASANT WEATHER EARLY TO MIDWEEK WITH LOW HUMIDITY, INCLUDING
WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOLER MORNINGS.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES (15% TO 30%) RETURN LATE WEEK, MAINLY LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS DRIER AIR ALOFT SETTLING
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE PV ZONE ALOFT SIGNALING THE END OF OUR
STREAK OF DAMP DAYS. THANKS TO EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DRY AIR
ROLLING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE WEATHER QUIET.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE SUNNY WEATHER WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH A 60 TO 90% CHANCE OF
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS RISING ABOVE 90F. THE DRY AIR WILL HELP
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS,
WITH SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE MID 60S. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE UPPER
50S, WITH ABOUT A 60% TO 70% CHANCE FOR THE LLANO AND FREDERICKSBURG
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO REACH A MINIMUM BY AROUND
WEDNESDAY (WITH MEAN ENSEMBLE VALUES AROUND THE 25TH TO 50TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY) AS FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS BECOMES MORE
ZONAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM INTO MIDWEEK, BUT THE
ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THAT UPTREND GRADUAL AND HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN
IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THE AREA UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY, AND THEN OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU / CONCHO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A CLOSED
LOW. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO AROUND 15-30% THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE RIO
GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE GEFS/GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS PATTERN, DEPICTING A STRONGER DISTURBANCE THAN MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE, AND CONSEQUENTLY HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE.
SEPARATE FROM THIS FEATURE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF, WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY
INDICATING A HIGH (70%) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WHILE ENSEMBLES DIVERGE
REGARDING ITS POTENTIAL TRACK, THE PRESENCE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL IMBUE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TEND TO KEEP
MOST OF ITS MOISTURE AND RAINBANDS OUT OF OUR AREA. IF THE SYSTEM
TAKES A NORTH OR NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY SHOWN IN MOST MODELS, THE
IMPACTS TO OUR AREA WOULD BE VERY MINOR. STILL, WEAK EASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE GULF BRINGS A LOW (LESS THAN 25%) CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW RAIN CHANCES THEN LESSEN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES
PAST THE AREA. THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY, SUPPORTING WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS TO SKY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. MODERATE NNE BREEZES TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS UP INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE AT THE I-35 TERMINALS. WIND SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SPEEDS SLIGHTLY UPTICK INTO THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY
BUT NOT AS BREEZY OR GUSTY AS THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 85 66 86 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 92 66 93 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...62
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