121
FXUS64 KEWX 060507
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1207 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- PLEASANT WEATHER EARLY TO MIDWEEK WITH LOW HUMIDITY, INCLUDING WARM
AFTERNOONS AND COOLER MORNINGS.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES (~15-25%) RETURN LATE WEEK, MAINLY PEAK
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND RIO GRANDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S
IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. BY
THIS MORNING WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND SUNNY DAY WITH
HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAYS WITH MOST IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW 90S OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
COMMON. WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MANY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW
90S ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR WESTERN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
OUR PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES AS NORTHERLY FLOW IS SEEN IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO A CONTINUED
DRYING OUT ACROSS OUR AREA. DAILY HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH THE MORNING LOWS DIPPING DOWN
INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE BY LATE WEEK AS A POSSIBLE
DISTURBANCE TRIES ESTABLISHING ITSELF LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS WEST
TEXAS ON THURSDAY, AND THEN OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/CONCHO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AS IT BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES (~15-25%) ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, NHC IS CURRENTLY MONITORING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HAS NOW INCREASED ITS
CHANCES UP TO A HIGH (80%) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CURRENT STEERING FLOWS
SUGGEST THAT THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF. THOUGH MODELS STRONGLY DIVERGE ON TIMING AND TRACK. IF THIS
SYSTEM TAKES A MORE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THEN THIS WOULD ALLOW
OUR AREA TO REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE AS THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TAKEN
MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. THEREFORE ONLY
TEMPERATURES WOULD REALLY BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM.
FOR NOW IT IS STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO PUT ANY CONFIDENCE IN A
PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS DISTURBANCE AND WATCH TO SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS AND WHAT
IMPACTS IF ANY THIS WOULD BRING TO OUR LOCAL AREA.
BEYOND FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS THE TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT TROPICAL SYSTEM PUSH WELL FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD OPEN UP THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT WARNER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AREA WIDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR OVER
THE REGION KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND PERSISTS UNDER 10 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND AT KDRT, WIND MAY LARGELY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 65 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 64 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 65 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 67 93 67 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 64 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 68 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 68 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...27
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