925
FXUS64 KEWX 062343
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- PLEASANT WEATHER WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOL MORNINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
DRY AIR IS KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIESCENT. THIS MORNING, THE DRY AIR
AND CLEAR SKIES HELPED TEMPERATURES AT AUSTIN/CAMP MABRY DIP BELOW
70F FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE, AND AT SAN ANTONIO FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE LATE MAY. THIS AIR MAY BE AT ITS DRIEST WEDNESDAY (BASED
ON PRECIPITABLE WATER), BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STICK AROUND
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE DRYNESS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM APPRECIABLY DURING THE DAYTIME, BUT THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
TO LOW 90S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN SPOTS
IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE WEATHER STAYS CONSISTENT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK,
WITH SLIGHT MODERATION OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS MOISTURE LEVELS
STABILIZE. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE TO STAY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH IS NOT
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE TO RAIN CHANCES WITH ITS TRACK KEEPING OUR
REGION UNDER MORE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
HAVE ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE PASSING TROUGH INTERACTS WITH SOME WESTWARD ADVECTION OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE, MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WITH THE REST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINING UNDER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF, THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR EAST, SO THE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA WILL BE
MINOR TO NEGLIGIBLE.
ONCE THE PASSING TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA, RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER
TEXAS AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. AFTER A LONG
AND SOMEWHAT UNCOMMON STREAK OF NORTH WINDS, THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW TO REVERT BACK TO A MORE CONVENTIONAL SOUTHERLY WIND,
LEADING AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AND MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SUPPORTS BROADER RAIN CHANCES, WITH THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LIKELIHOOD INCREASING TOWARDS MID-OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER
THAN TO TWEAK THE WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY AND MODIFY DIRECTIONS
SLIGHTLY. EXPECTING CONTINUED ENE WINDS AT 040/050 AROUND 10 KTS
AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF, DROPPING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS AT AUS AFTER
03Z, WHILE SAT AND SSF LINGER THROUGH 05Z THEN EVENTUALLY FALL OFF
TO LESS THAN 7 KTS AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY WIND BETWEEN 010 AND
020. WINDS SWING BACK AROUND OUT OF THE ENE AT 030 TO 050 BY 16Z
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
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