169
FXUS64 KEWX 071028
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
528 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- NO HAZARD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX DUE TO NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IN THE SW GULF.
- DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO RESUME TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT ONSHORE
FLOW TO BRING LOW END RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
COOL DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL HELP WITH KEEPING MIN
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS. DURING THE
DAYTIME HIGH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE
WEATHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX WITH A LIGHT NE SURFACE BREEZE TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MOSTLY CONTINENTAL. SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS HELPING TO KEEP THE
DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS MOSTLY STEADY. THIS ARID AIR MASS WILL ALSO
LIMIT THE HEAT INDEX DESPITE THE WARM AFTERNOONS. ON THURSDAY THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS NE AND MORE E WHICH OPENS THE AREA BACK
UP TO SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TX
COULD LEAK INTO THE DRT AREA THURSDAY THAT COULD POTENTIALLY TAP
INTO SOME OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE FOR A BRIEF BLIP OF RAIN
POTENTIAL JUST ON THE OUTSIDE OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST; HOWEVER
THE MORE RECENT MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LESS ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
UP TO THURSDAY NIGHT, NO WEATHER INFLUENCE FROM DEVELOPING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 9 SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. BASED ON
THE ROBUST STRENGTHENING FORECAST BY THE NHC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WOULD HAVE US WATCHING A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
HEADING NORTHEAST. THE SMALL-ISH SYSTEM AND THE TRACKING DIRECTION
AWAY FROM TX HAS THE MODEL DATA SHOWING ALMOST NO WIND IMPACT FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH MAYBE JUST A HINT WE'LL SEE THE SURFACE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THOSE WITH WEEKEND PLANS FOR THE COAST WILL WANT TO STAY IN TOUCH
WITH OUR SISTER NWS OFFICES IN CRP/HGX/BRO TO KNOW ABOUT THE RISK OF
HIGHER TIDES AND RIP CURRENTS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE FULLY REMOVED FROM ANY FUTURE IMPACTS
OF THE GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM, ASSUMING THE TRACK AND LANDFALL
PROJECTIONS ARE WITHIN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE WEAKNESS THAT
MOVED INTO WEST TX DISAPPEARS AND THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER TX. HOWEVER, THERE IS ANOTHER
WEAKNESS PATTER DEVELOPING TO THE WEST BUT FURTHER OUT. THE EASTERN
PACIFIC CYCLONE RACHAEL, CURRENTLY STILL A HURRICANE, WILL WEAKEN
AND GET ABSORBED INTO A EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH, AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING
TROPICAL LOW IS PROJECTED TO TAKE SHAPE AND WORK ITS WAY NW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE APPROACHING WEAKNESSES SHOULD
REVEAL LITTLE IMPACT OVER TX SATURDAY, BUT COULD BEGIN IMPACTING THE
AREA SUNDAY, MAINLY THROUGH A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WIND. BY MONDAY
MORNING LOW, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL TAKE A
SIGNIFICANT TURN UPWARD, GIVING US THAT STICKY OCTOBER AIR THAT WE
ARE ACCUSTOMED TO. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR ENOUGH MOISTURE
MOVING INLAND TO SET UP SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION. THIS TROPICAL AIR
MASS SIGNAL LOOKS TO GET MORE TRACTION GOING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES NORTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS AT I-35
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT KDRT, LIGHT WIND
AROUND 5-6 KNOTS REMAINS DURING THE DAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHTER
WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 62 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 67 91 69 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 68 93 67 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...27
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