920
FXUS63 KFGF 170346
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
- A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MINOR WINTER IMPACTS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH ABOUT A
20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS. SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW COULD LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA. IMPACTS
COULD EXTEND WELL INTO THURSDAY DUE TO A CHANCE FOR BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
THE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW AREA HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS ANTICIPATED. LEFT ARE CLOUDS AND A NORTHWEST WIND, THOUGH
GUSTS ARE DIMINISHING. NO NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
THE REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE SHIFTED INTO NW MN. A
FINGER OF CLEARING HAS WORKED SOUTH FROM WEST OF WINNIPEG TOWARD
GRAND FORKS BUT CLOUDS ARE EITHER SIDE OF IT. SO UNSURE HOW LONG
THE CLEAR WEDGE WILL LAST. DID KEEP OVERALL SKY COVER MOSTLY
CLOUDY THRU THE NIGHT IN THE GRIDS. WINDS ON THE SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 03Z. WE HAVE BLOWING SNOW HIGHLIGHTED IN
NE ND AND THAT SEEMS APPROPRIATE FROM THE IMAGES I HAVE SEEN IN
THE PAST 2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..SYNOPSIS
THIS WEEK CONTINUES AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS LINED UP THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS
FALL ONCE MORE OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION, WITH COLD AIR SETTLING
SOUTHEASTWARD BY MID WEEK. A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP THEN TAKES
SHAPE THAT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF H5 TROUGHS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. INCREASED MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL ALLOW
BETTER ACCESS TO MOISTURE AS THESE SYSTEMS FORM.
..LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL,
GENERALLY UP TO ONE INCH.
..ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TUES EVENING
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY EVENING,
PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL SHARPLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, SETTING THE STAGE
FOR OUR NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
..MINOR TO MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONSENSUS IS BUILDING WITHIN MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE SUITES, AS WELL AS
NBM, TODAY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER H5 TROUGH HEADING
INTO MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT SURROUNDING THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A SLIGHT TREND TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE RUNS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 4 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM
DEVILS LAKE TO FERGUS FALLS. A BANDING SIGNAL IS PRESENT, ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY WEAK, WHICH COULD ALLOW A HEAVIER BAND TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRACK AXIS. THIS IS EVIDENT IN SOME OF THE
MID RANGE CAMS, BUT WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION. EARLY
PROBABILITIES INDICATE ROUGHLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES OF
SNOW. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS INTO THE AREA. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH, VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IS WORKING SOUTH FROM WEST OF WINNIPEG
TOWARD GRAND FORKS AND THEREFORE GRAND FORKS CEILINGS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE VFR RANGE. FARGO AND DVL ARE ALSO IN VFR RANGE WHILE
IFR IS EAST TOWARD TVF AND BJI. OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS
THRU THE NIGHT INTO TUES AM MAY REMAIN VARIABLE, BUT GENERALLY
THINKING PREDOMINATELY AROUND OR JUST UNDER 1000 FT AGL TVF/BJI
WHILE VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR ELSEWHERE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND BE MUCH LIGHTER TUESDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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