141
FXUS63 KFGF 181137
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
537 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY FOR EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. 60% CHANCE FOR WARNING TYPE IMPACTS RESULTING IN
VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..SYNOPSIS
CURRENT SATELLITE HAS AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. FLURRIES ARE ONGOING IN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS THIS
MORNING, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A COOLER AND QUIET
MAJORITY OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS
TO SHIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SYNOPTIC FORCING AND FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING SHIFT IN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY BRINGING A SWATH OF 2 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WINTER IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
..WINTER IMPACTS LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WINTERY IMPACTS TO
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM STRONG WAA AND FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING DEVELOP WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PREVALENT AND CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ON ITS APPEARANCE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. WE ARE CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE A SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES OF
SNOW WITHIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. A NARROW BAND DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONTOGENTIC ZONE BACK TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. CAMS SHOW THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SEEING THE HIGHER
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING, WITH CONFIDENCE LOW ON ITS
EXACT PLACEMENT. SOME OF THE CAMS PUSH THE BAND FURTHER NORTHWARD OR
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THIS AFFECTS THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL RATES AND THUS CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTABILITY IS LOW ON
PLACEMENT OF THE NARROW BAND. NONE THE LESS, PREDICTABILITY IS
HIGHER THAT SOME AREAS WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SEE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES.
HREF PROBABILITIES OF OVER AN INCH PER HOUR ARE 60-70% WITHIN THE
DEVILS LAKE AREA, BUT DROP OFF QUICKLY AS THE BAND OF SNOW PUSHES
EASTWARD. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO GUIDANCE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE WHETHER
OR NOT THE FRONTOGENTIC FORCING REMAINS STRONG OR WEAKENS AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. TIMEFRAME OF THE NARROW BAND APPROACHING
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN IS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THURSDAY MORNING. AS WE PUSH FURTHER THROUGH THE MORNING
THE FRONTOGENTIC FORCING LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN SOME GUIDANCE
(60%). THIS WOULD RESULT IN LESS ORGANIZED BANDS WITHIN THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FORCED SNOW BRINGING BRIEF LOCALIZED HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES
AS THE SNOW REACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME SCENARIOS (40%)
INDICATE FRONTOGENTIC FORCING REMAINING STRONGER THROUGH THE MORNING
AS IT REACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE SNOWFALL
RATES WITHIN THE VALLEY AND THUS SNOWFALL TOTALS.
A WIDE SWATH OF 2-5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA,
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AREAS OF UP TO 8 INCHES IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. IF FORCING CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AS HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES
LAST LONGER INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THOSE CHANCES OF UP TO 8
INCHES WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE VALLEY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WE START TO WRAP AROUND CAA. WINDS INCREASE
AS THE TEMPS COOL, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY FOR EASTERN ND AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THERE MAY BE AN OVERLAP OF FALLING SNOW AND WINDS
LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF THIS WHERE TO
HAPPEN WE WOULD SEE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BEST CHANCE
FOR THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE BACK TOWARD CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE CAA IS STRONGER AND WINDS SHIFT FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH. NONE THE LESS, THE COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 35MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE FOR WARNING TYPE IMPACTS WITHIN
THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
POST SYSTEM, WE ARE LOOKING AT CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH A
WEAK SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO
DEVELOP LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, AS LOW STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE SITES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING
UNDERNEATH THE LOW STRATUS. WE WILL SEE A BREAK MID TO LATE
MORNING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SNOW STARTS
TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. DVL SEES THE SNOW FIRST AROUND 23-01Z,
AND GFK, TVF, AND FAR AROUND 01-03Z. BJI SEES THE SNOW AROUND
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. SNOW MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES IN THE DVL AREA
05-10Z, WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 1/2SM. LOWER CHANCES FOR
MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY, WITH GFK, FAR, AND TVF SEEING DOWN TO
3/4SM AT TIMES 05-10Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 1/4SM OR LESS FOR
ALL SITES BUT BJI 05-12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT
OCCURING. CEILINGS UNDERNEATH THE SNOW WILL BE MVFR TO IFR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>003-027-029-030-040.
DISCUSSION...SPENDER
AVIATION...SPENDER
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