741
FXUS63 KFGF 182050
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
250 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, AND SOUTHEAST
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR OVER 8 INCHES OF
SNOW WITHIN THE WARNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SARGENT COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
- WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED (20% CHANCE),
WITH OCCASIONAL OR SCATTERED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IF AT ALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..SYNOPSIS
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
AND THEN OFF INTO MN/IA TOMORROW, WITH A FAIRLY BROAD SWATH OF
SNOW FOR OUR REGION. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS. ANOTHER CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY
FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF VARIATION ON EXACT TRACK SO IMPACTS ARE
UNCERTAIN. QUIET CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS LOOK POSSIBLE
INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
..WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHILE THE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FAIRLY FAST MOVING, IT DOES BRING A BROAD AREA OF SYNOPTIC LIFT
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
PLENTY OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND WHILE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING BRINGING EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS, WE COULD GET 4 TO 7 INCHES JUST FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WHILE WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT THE START OF THE
SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
TOMORROW. THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IN ADDITION TO
AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH EITHER THE GRAND FORKS SPECIAL 4 INCHES AND WIND OR
REGULAR 6 INCH CRITERIA, THINK A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA COULD SEE WARNING IMPACTS. HAVE A WARNING ROUGHLY FROM
DEVILS LAKE TO HILLSBORO TO WADENA WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF HAS
BEEN TRENDING.
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
LESS SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN IN SARGENT COUNTY AND LESS SNOW AND LESS
WIND IN NORTHWESTERN MN NEAR THE RED LAKES AND LAKE OF THE
WOODS. STILL AT LEAST MINOR WINTER IMPACTS ARE LIKELY SO
INCLUDED THE REST OF OUR COUNTIES IN AN ADVISORY.
..BLOWING SNOW.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, IT
DOES SEEM THAT THE WORST OF THE WINDS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
IS MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS, AND WHILE WINDS WILL
PICK UP AND SNOW WILL BLOW, THE WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
THAT CAN OCCUR UP HERE ARE NOT EXPECTED. INSTEAD CHANCES ARE
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN HALF A MILE, WITH
ONLY A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED OCCASIONS WHERE WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
SOME LINGERING STRATUS CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND EVEN
A FEW FLURRIES TO A FEW OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO, THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK WITH VFR FOR SOME OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
AFTER 06Z AS LOWER CEILINGS AND SNOW MOVE IN STARTING IN KDVL
AND MOVING EAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DOWN TO IFR BY MORNING.
VISIBILITY WILL BE IMPACTED BY BOTH FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW,
BUT AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD BELOW HALF MILE DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY, SO WILL KEEP VIS 1/2SM AT KFAR ONLY AND GO A BIT HIGHER
AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE EAST AND THEN THE NORTHEAST TO DUE NORTH AT KDVL AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT
TIMES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR NDZ052.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>003-014-015-022-027-029>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
THURSDAY FOR MNZ004>009-013-016-017-023-024-028.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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