598
FXUS63 KFGF 190351
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, AND SOUTHEAST
INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH A 20% CHANCE FOR OVER 8 INCHES OF
SNOW WITHIN THE WARNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SARGENT COUNTY AS WELL AS
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
- WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED (20% CHANCE),
WITH OCCASIONAL OR SCATTERED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON IF AT ALL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
HEAVIER SNOW HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. OBSERVATIONS GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 1SM
DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL RATES. VISIBILITIES ARE NOT PERSISTENT AS
BANDING IS FAIRLY TRANSIENT. THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS IS FOR NOW, HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNALS FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THAT COULD PUSH A BROADER SWATH INTO THE 6-8
INCH RANGE. FOR THIS REASON, CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE NECESSARY
TO DETERMINE IF AN EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING INTO
FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS NECESSARY AS PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
TRANSIENT BANDING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN, EMBEDDED WELL WITHIN SOME SOLID FRONTOGENESIS AT 850MB.
WITHIN THESE BANDS, VISIBILITIES HAVE GENERALLY RANGED BETWEEN
1/2SM TO 1SM, WITH OCCASIONAL 1/4SM NOTED UPSTREAM WITHIN
HEAVIER BANDS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THESE BANDS ARE AT LEAST
EXCEEDING HALF INCH PER HOUR RATES, HOWEVER OBSERVATIONS THUS
FAR HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO CONFIRM THIS. STILL, THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH TIMING AS SNOW BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..SYNOPSIS
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
AND THEN OFF INTO MN/IA TOMORROW, WITH A FAIRLY BROAD SWATH OF
SNOW FOR OUR REGION. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SET UP FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING FAIRLY
QUIET CONDITIONS. ANOTHER CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY
FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF VARIATION ON EXACT TRACK SO IMPACTS ARE
UNCERTAIN. QUIET CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS LOOK POSSIBLE
INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
..WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHILE THE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
FAIRLY FAST MOVING, IT DOES BRING A BROAD AREA OF SYNOPTIC LIFT
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
PLENTY OF 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND WHILE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING BRINGING EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS, WE COULD GET 4 TO 7 INCHES JUST FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WHILE WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT THE START OF THE
SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
TOMORROW. THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IN ADDITION TO
AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. WITH EITHER THE GRAND FORKS SPECIAL 4 INCHES AND WIND OR
REGULAR 6 INCH CRITERIA, THINK A LARGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA COULD SEE WARNING IMPACTS. HAVE A WARNING ROUGHLY FROM
DEVILS LAKE TO HILLSBORO TO WADENA WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF HAS
BEEN TRENDING.
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
LESS SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN IN SARGENT COUNTY AND LESS SNOW AND LESS
WIND IN NORTHWESTERN MN NEAR THE RED LAKES AND LAKE OF THE
WOODS. STILL AT LEAST MINOR WINTER IMPACTS ARE LIKELY SO
INCLUDED THE REST OF OUR COUNTIES IN AN ADVISORY.
..BLOWING SNOW.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, IT
DOES SEEM THAT THE WORST OF THE WINDS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST. THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET
IS MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS, AND WHILE WINDS WILL
PICK UP AND SNOW WILL BLOW, THE WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
THAT CAN OCCUR UP HERE ARE NOT EXPECTED. INSTEAD CHANCES ARE
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN HALF A MILE, WITH
ONLY A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED OCCASIONS WHERE WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS OCCUR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
TAFS WILL PRETTY MUCH LOOK THE SAME AS THEY DID BEFORE ON THE
18Z RUN THROUGH AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS THE SAME AS EARLIER FOR
THE UPCOMING WINTER EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DUE TO
FALLING SNOW, GETTING DOWN TO IFR AND PRETTY MUCH LINGERING
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED EXCEEDING 12 KNOTS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, WITH WIND
DIRECTION CHANGING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ052.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>003-
014-015-022-027-029>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ004>009-
013-016-017-023-024-028.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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