684
FXUS63 KFGF 192047
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
247 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW, AS WELL AS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW,
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WINTER IMPACTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- SEVERAL WEAKER, FAST MOVING SYSTEMS MAY BRING LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..SYNOPSIS
THE TROUGH BRINGING OUR SNOW WILL DIG FURTHER INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT, LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL COME DOWN FROM CANADA
IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND ANOTHER WEAKER ONE ON SATURDAY. A CUT OFF LOW COMING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION. AFTER THAT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH, FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OR SPLIT FLOW AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
..LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT HAS TAPERED OFF IN OUR FAR
NORTHWEST AND SKIES HAVE EVEN CLEARED OUT IN TOWNER AND WESTERN
BENSON COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN PRETTY TIGHT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA, ALTHOUGH THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAS BEEN WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOT VERY WIDESPREAD, THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DRIFTING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT GOT
5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO RELAX WHERE
IT IS CLEARING OUT, SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE DECREASING IN OUR FAR
NORTHWEST. STILL WERE GETTING SOME DRIFTING ON WEB CAMS ON LAST
LOOK, BUT WILL TAKE A SECOND LOOK AND MAY TRIM A FEW COUNTIES
OUT OF THE WARNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE EVENT IS DONE. OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE LIGHT SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEMS
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL COME DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICK
MOVING AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE, SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VERY HEAVY. THINKING A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF A HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. ANOTHER, WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL COME DOWN
SATURDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, THE CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION. AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT, BUT NBM
HAS SOME 5 TO 10 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN. NOT HIGH, BUT ANY SMALL AMOUNT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION CAN
CAUSE IMPACTS SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE DOWN TO 1SM AT THE LOWEST, BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR SOME 1/2 MILE VIS OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES AS WINDS
START TO GUST ABOVE 25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING, AND IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE 06Z. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
10 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ052.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>003-014-015-022-027-029>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ004>009-013-016-017-023-024-028.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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