981
FXUS63 KFGF 200327
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL WEAKER, FAST MOVING SYSTEMS MAY BRING LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE IMPACTS FROM THIS
PAST EVENT. LINGERING FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BUT OTHER THAN
THAT IMPACTS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED AS MAXIMUM PRESSURE
RISES HAVE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECT LOW IMPACTS
OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THE HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM. AS HEAVIER SNOW EXITS THE
AREA, BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS HAVE BEEN SEVERELY LIMITED IN SCOPE
DUE TO LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION. THERE WILL STILL BE POCKETS
OF SUB-1 MILE VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS, BUT WARNING IMPACTS HAVE FOR THE MOST PART ENDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..SYNOPSIS
THE TROUGH BRINGING OUR SNOW WILL DIG FURTHER INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT, LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL COME DOWN FROM CANADA
IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND ANOTHER WEAKER ONE ON SATURDAY. A CUT OFF LOW COMING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION. AFTER THAT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH, FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY OR SPLIT FLOW AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
..LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THIS EVENING
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT HAS TAPERED OFF IN OUR FAR
NORTHWEST AND SKIES HAVE EVEN CLEARED OUT IN TOWNER AND WESTERN
BENSON COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN PRETTY TIGHT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA, ALTHOUGH THE BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAS BEEN WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOT VERY WIDESPREAD, THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DRIFTING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT GOT
5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO RELAX WHERE
IT IS CLEARING OUT, SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE DECREASING IN OUR FAR
NORTHWEST. STILL WERE GETTING SOME DRIFTING ON WEB CAMS ON LAST
LOOK, BUT WILL TAKE A SECOND LOOK AND MAY TRIM A FEW COUNTIES
OUT OF THE WARNING IF IT LOOKS LIKE THE EVENT IS DONE. OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE LIGHT SNOW AND
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEMS
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL COME DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICK
MOVING AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE, SO AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VERY HEAVY. THINKING A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF A HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. ANOTHER, WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL COME DOWN
SATURDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, THE CUT OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION. AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT, BUT NBM
HAS SOME 5 TO 10 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN. NOT HIGH, BUT ANY SMALL AMOUNT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION CAN
CAUSE IMPACTS SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD TO VFR, BUT THE
MAIN ISSUE RIGHT NOW IS HOW LONG STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR EACH
TAF SITE. GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH ON EXITING OUT MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING, HOWEVER GIVEN PAST EXPERIENCES
WITH SYSTEMS LIKE THIS STRATUS TENDS TO LINGER LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. REGARDLESS, VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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