049
FXUS63 KFGF 200931
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL WEAK, FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY. MINIMAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..SYNOPSIS
REGION WILL BE IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COLDEST AIRMASS
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH THIS SHIFT FROM NW TO WNW 500 MB
FLOW. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, BUT THEY ARE WEAK AND WILL PRODUCE MINIMAL
IMPACTS. MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WE HEAD TOWARD
CHRISTMAS DAY AS FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST IS FORECAST FOR THE DEC 23-26TH PERIOD.
..TODAY-SATURDAY
QUICK MOVING 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SW SASKATCHEWAN INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z SAT. 850 MB WARM ADVECTION IS THE DRIVER
OF LIGHT SNOW AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS IS STRONGEST IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND IS WEAKER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
E ND. THEREFORE WILL LIKELY SEE A REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE TENTHS
OF SNOW LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT NE ND INTO PARTS NW MN. NARROW
CORRIDOR WHERE 850 MB SATURATES SHOWS THIS AREA OF POTENTIAL
LIGHT SNOW WELL. NBM POPS TOO LOW SO WENT BLEND OF MORE ROBUST
CONSHORT POPS. SATURDAY ANY LIGHT SNOW CHANCE IS IN NW MN WHERE
AGAIN A TRACE TO 0.2 INCH WILL OCCUR. BEING A DRY SNOW WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES, NOT SEEING ANY IMPACT FROM THIS VERY LIGHT
SNOW.
..SUNDAY-MONDAY
NEXT WAVE MOVES MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ND INTO SOUTHERN MN BY 12Z MON. SYSTEM IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED AS WELL BUT ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
USING NBM, CHANCES FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIP ARE 15 PCT IN CENTRAL
ND BUT DIMINISHES GREATLY INTO E ND/NW MN. THUS TALKING ABOUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH AGAIN WELL UNDER AN INCH ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL.
..REST OF NEXT WEEK.
LOOKS DRY THRU FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS. FORECAST SHOWS HIGHS MID 20S TO LOW
30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE LOW FOR THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY TO EVENTUALLY GET TO VFR BY 12Z FOR ALL TAF SITES
WITH FLURRIES LINGERING AROUND WHERE STRATUS STILL EXISTS.
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN FALL TOMORROW EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT DVL
WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. SNOW WILL ALSO IMPACT
DVL, ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO VISIBILITY IMPACTS IS UNCERTAIN SO
FOR NOW RUNNING WITH 6SM.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
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