490  
FXUS63 KFGF 201547  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
947 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SEVERAL WEAK, FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS  
OF SNOW LATE TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE  
SUNDAY. MINIMAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
 
VERY QUIET WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED  
RIVER. STILL FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO, BUT READINGS  
SHOULD SLOWLY COME UP AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 741 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
 
SKIES CLEAR AT 12Z WITH TEMPS IN MOST AREAS IN THE TEENS BELOW  
ZERO WITH LIGHT WINDS (CALM OR UNDER 5 KT). 06Z MODEL DATA IS  
SHOWING ABOUT THE SAME AS 00Z DATA SO WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS FOR  
TODAY TIMING WISE LOOKS REASONABLE.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
REGION WILL BE IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COLDEST AIRMASS  
WILL BE SHIFTING EAST WITH THIS SHIFT FROM NW TO WNW 500 MB  
FLOW. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE  
NEXT 72 HOURS, BUT THEY ARE WEAK AND WILL PRODUCE MINIMAL  
IMPACTS. MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES AS WE HEAD TOWARD  
CHRISTMAS DAY AS FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST. DRY  
WEATHER IS FORECAST IS FORECAST FOR THE DEC 23-26TH PERIOD.  
   
..TODAY-SATURDAY  
 
QUICK MOVING 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM SW SASKATCHEWAN INTO  
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z SAT. 850 MB WARM ADVECTION IS THE DRIVER  
OF LIGHT SNOW AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THIS IS STRONGEST IN  
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND AND IS WEAKER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER  
E ND. THEREFORE WILL LIKELY SEE A REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF  
LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A COUPLE TENTHS  
OF SNOW LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT NE ND INTO PARTS NW MN. NARROW  
CORRIDOR WHERE 850 MB SATURATES SHOWS THIS AREA OF POTENTIAL  
LIGHT SNOW WELL. NBM POPS TOO LOW SO WENT BLEND OF MORE ROBUST  
CONSHORT POPS. SATURDAY ANY LIGHT SNOW CHANCE IS IN NW MN WHERE  
AGAIN A TRACE TO 0.2 INCH WILL OCCUR. BEING A DRY SNOW WITH THE  
COLD TEMPERATURES, NOT SEEING ANY IMPACT FROM THIS VERY LIGHT  
SNOW.  
   
..SUNDAY-MONDAY  
 
NEXT WAVE MOVES MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN  
ND INTO SOUTHERN MN BY 12Z MON. SYSTEM IS RATHER MOISTURE  
STARVED AS WELL BUT ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  
USING NBM, CHANCES FOR ANY FREEZING PRECIP ARE 15 PCT IN CENTRAL  
ND BUT DIMINISHES GREATLY INTO E ND/NW MN. THUS TALKING ABOUT  
SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH AGAIN WELL UNDER AN INCH ACCUMULATION  
POTENTIAL.  
   
..REST OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
LOOKS DRY THRU FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS. FORECAST SHOWS HIGHS MID 20S TO LOW  
30S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
 
VFR THRU 00Z WITH CLEAR SKY GIVING WAY TO SOME CIRRUS, ESP E ND.  
LIGHT WIND TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST 5-8 KTS IN E ND THIS AFTN.  
TONIGHT WILL SEE MID CLOUDS SPREAD EAST WITH RISK OF MVFR CIG  
INTO DVL AFTER 06Z. SOUTHEAST WIND 5-15 KTS.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...RIDDLE/JR  
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE  
AVIATION...RIDDLE  
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