004  
FXUS63 KFGF 202043  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
243 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A DUSTING TO A HALF AN  
INCH OF LIGHT SNOW COMING TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND  
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.  
 
- ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND  
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING  
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ANOTHER DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MN TOMORROW.  
ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW WILL COME THROUGH ON SUNDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE  
SYSTEM. THAT WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY, WITH  
RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT AND A WARMER THAN AVERAGE TREND SETTING UP FOR  
CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
   
..LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
 
 
FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER AND IS  
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN ND ALREADY. SOME MINOR  
IMPACTS DUE TO LOWERED VIS AND SLICK CONDITIONS OUT THERE, BUT  
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIGHT SNOW SKIRTING OUR WESTERN  
COUNTIES AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO SD AND THEN IA TONIGHT.  
PRETTY GOOD PROBABILITIES FROM THE HREF FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH  
OF SNOW WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT QUICKLY GOES DOWN TO  
ZERO PROBABILITY WHEN LOOKING AT AN INCH OR MORE. THIS FITS THE  
FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE WAVE. EQUALLY QUICK MOVING AND EVEN  
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL COME DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN  
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BRINGING A SIMILAR ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW  
TO NORTHWESTERN MN. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE A DUSTING TO A  
HALF AN INCH IS MOST LIKELY AS PROBABILITIES FOR ANYTHING MORE  
THAN AN INCH JUST AREN'T THERE.  
   
..MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY
 
 
CUT OFF LOW COMES OUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,  
QUICKLY MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE  
WORK WEEK MONDAY. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SO  
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS NOT HIGH. PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING  
RAIN FROM THE NBM ARE PRETTY LOW, ONLY AROUND 5 PERCENT DESPITE  
SEVERAL MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME FAVORABILITY FOR A WARM  
LAYER ALOFT. LOOKING AT ONLY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE A  
LITTLE HIGHER, BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT FOR SLEET OR FREEZING  
RAIN, BUT NOT SUPER HIGH. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN  
IMPACTS TO START DEDICATED MESSAGING, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH THE MN  
AIRPORTS HAVE BEEN GOING IN AND OUT OF MVFR WITH SOME 3-5SM BR  
THAT IS PRETTY RANDOM. SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS MORE HIGH CLOUDS  
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS STEADY OUT OF  
THE SOUTHEAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS COMING INTO THE KDVL  
AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT DON'T THINK IT WILL COME  
TOO FAR EAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP OUT OF THE  
SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AND KGFK AND KTVF COULD GUST ABOVE 20 KTS.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...JR  
AVIATION...JR  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page