831
FXUS63 KFGF 210535
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A DUSTING TO A HALF AN
INCH OF LIGHT SNOW COMING TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
- ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES REMAINS THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH ATTENTION NOW TURNING TO ANOTHER
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. CAMS
SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA DURING
THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. QPF REMAINS
LOW IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, WITH AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 710 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
RADAR RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE PRODUCING
VERY LITTLE GROUND TRUTH AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. WE COULD STILL SEE FLURRIES OR PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THAT REGION; HOWEVER, OVERALL THERE WILL BE A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ANOTHER DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MN TOMORROW.
ANOTHER CUT OFF LOW WILL COME THROUGH ON SUNDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THAT WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY, WITH
RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND A WARMER THAN AVERAGE TREND SETTING UP FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK.
..LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER AND IS
BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO WESTERN ND ALREADY. SOME MINOR
IMPACTS DUE TO LOWERED VIS AND SLICK CONDITIONS OUT THERE, BUT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIGHT SNOW SKIRTING OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO SD AND THEN IA TONIGHT.
PRETTY GOOD PROBABILITIES FROM THE HREF FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF SNOW WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT QUICKLY GOES DOWN TO
ZERO PROBABILITY WHEN LOOKING AT AN INCH OR MORE. THIS FITS THE
FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE WAVE. EQUALLY QUICK MOVING AND EVEN
WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL COME DOWN FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, BRINGING A SIMILAR ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
TO NORTHWESTERN MN. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE A DUSTING TO A
HALF AN INCH IS MOST LIKELY AS PROBABILITIES FOR ANYTHING MORE
THAN AN INCH JUST AREN'T THERE.
..MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY
CUT OFF LOW COMES OUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
QUICKLY MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK MONDAY. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SO
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS NOT HIGH. PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING
RAIN FROM THE NBM ARE PRETTY LOW, ONLY AROUND 5 PERCENT DESPITE
SEVERAL MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME FAVORABILITY FOR A WARM
LAYER ALOFT. LOOKING AT ONLY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PROBS ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER, BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT FOR SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN, BUT NOT SUPER HIGH. AT THIS POINT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
IMPACTS TO START DEDICATED MESSAGING, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH KBJI
OCCASIONALLY FALLING INTO MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO PATCHY BR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR KDVL, KGFK, AND KTVF; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AS A PREVAILING GROUP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH STARTING AROUND MIDDAY, WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLE UP TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS FOR
KDVL, KGFK, AND KTVF COULD FALL INTO MVFR CATEGORIES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...LYNCH
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