098
FXUS63 KFGF 211236
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN ND/NORTHERN SD INTO CENTRAL
MN SUNDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IN PRECIP TYPES AND
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
LIGHT SNOW AREA SHOWING UP NICELY ON KMVX AND WOODLANDS MB
RADAR. SNOW AREA MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW ON WEBCAMS
IN BETWEEN HALLOCK AND ROSEAU TO JUST EAST OF THIEF RIVER.
KARLSTAD DOT CAM SHOWS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS TO BE
EXPECTED. SNOW AREA EXTENDS TO WINNIPEG. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF
SNOW SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST SO IN TIME THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL EXIT THE AREA. SPOTTY FLURRIES IN THE CLOUD DECK IN E ND AS
WELL BUT APPEAR MINOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US WITH AREA IN NW FLOW
AFLOT TODAY BUT SWITCHING TO MORE WESTERLY SUNDAY AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY MID NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING THRU THIS 500 MB FLOW. VERY WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO MN
THIS MORNING WITH CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN NW MN. A BIT
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ESE FROM S ALBERTA INTO SOUTHERN ND/SD
INTO MN.
..TODAY
WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHWEST OF WINNIPEG MOVES SOUTHEAST
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM BUT OBS INDICATE
8-15SM VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES DAUPHIN AND BRANDON. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR -SN AND FLURRIES INTO FAR NORTHERN
RRV AND NW MN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND
WITH CLOUDS A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY TEENS.
..SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ALBERTA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
ABERDEEN SD BY 06Z MON. 850 MB TEMPS WARM SO THAT MUST CONSIDER
WINTRY MIX WHEREEVER THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS. THIS IS WHERE
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. MODEL BLENDS AND ENSEMBLES FROM GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN NE MT AND THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING CHANCES INTO SE ND SUNDAY EVENING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW INITIALLY A FAVORABLE FZRA SOUNDING WITH WARM AIR
AT 800-900 MB IN FAR SE ND BUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES THE
SOUNDING SATURATES AND THE TEMP PROFILE BECOMES SATURATED UP
THRU 750 MB IN SE ND WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C SUNDAY MID
EVENING. SO FEEL RISK OF FREEZING RAIN IS RATHER LIMITED IN TIME
TO SUNDAY EARLY EVENING. PROBS FROM WPC INDICATE 15-25 PCT CHC
OF 0.01 INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
DEVILS LAKE-MAYVILLE-PARK RAPIDS LINE. WORKING WITH PTYPES IS A
CHALLENGE....AND ENDED UP GOING A BROAD SLIGHT CHC OR CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN 00Z-06Z MON PERIOD.
MONDAY THRU FRIDAY SHOWS DRY WEATHER. SOME DRIER AIR AT 850 MB
MOVES IN TUESDAY SO BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SUN THEN, ESP E ND.
OTHERWISE WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS LOW 30S CHRISTMAS DAY
AND THURSDAY AND MID 30S FRIDAY. EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY LIKELY A
CLOUDY PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH WIND BLOW 10-15 KTS.
WHETHER THE AIRMASS BECOMES MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR ANY
DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN. MELTING AT THE SURFACE TO BE LIMITED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. PREDOMINATE IN TH ELOWER END
VFR VARIETY (4-6K FT AGL). BRIEF LOWERING PSBL THOUGH ESP DVL.
RISK OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY OVERNIGHT. SSE WIND INTO TONIGHT,
GUSTY AT TIMES IN THE RRV TO OVER 20KTS MID TO LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page