472
FXUS63 KFGF 211719
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1119 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES ESE ACROSS SOUTHERN ND/NORTHERN SD INTO CENTRAL
MN SUNDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IN PRECIP TYPES AND
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
MADE SOME POP EDITS TO BETTER REFLECT WHERE SNOW CONTINUE TO BE
REPORTED IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING WITH A DUSTING
ON ROADS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WE HAVE TODAY WHICH HAVE SO FAR LEAD TO PATCHY
DRIFTING THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SNOW ENDING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL (< 0.5") ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
LIGHT SNOW AREA SHOWING UP NICELY ON KMVX AND WOODLANDS MB
RADAR. SNOW AREA MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW ON WEBCAMS
IN BETWEEN HALLOCK AND ROSEAU TO JUST EAST OF THIEF RIVER.
KARLSTAD DOT CAM SHOWS SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS... WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED. SNOW AREA EXTENDS TO WINNIPEG. RADAR SHOWS AREA OF
SNOW SLIDING EAST-SOUTHEAST SO IN TIME THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL EXIT THE AREA. SPOTTY FLURRIES IN THE CLOUD DECK IN E ND AS
WELL BUT APPEAR MINOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US WITH AREA IN NW FLOW
ALOFT TODAY BUT SWITCHING TO MORE WESTERLY SUNDAY AND WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY MID NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THIS 500 MB FLOW. VERY WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
MN THIS MORNING WITH CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES IN NW MN. A
BIT STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES ESE FROM S ALBERTA INTO SOUTHERN ND/SD
INTO MN.
..TODAY
WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE NORTHWEST OF WINNIPEG MOVES SOUTHEAST
TODAY. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM BUT OBS INDICATE
8-15SM VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES DAUPHIN AND BRANDON. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN RRV AND NW MN THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY
TODAY AND WITH CLOUDS A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS.
..SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ALBERTA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
ABERDEEN SD BY 06Z MON. 850 MB TEMPS WARM SO MUST CONSIDER
WINTRY MIX WHEREVER THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS. THIS IS WHERE
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. MODEL BLENDS AND ENSEMBLES FROM GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN NE MT AND THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING CHANCES INTO SE ND SUNDAY EVENING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW INITIALLY A FAVORABLE FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING
WITH WARM AIR AT 800-900 MB IN FAR SE ND BUT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES THE SOUNDING SATURATES AND THE TEMP PROFILE BECOMES
SATURATED UP THRU 750 MB IN SE ND WITH TEMPS JUST BELOW 0C
SUNDAY MID EVENING. SO FEEL THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN IS RATHER
LIMITED TEMPORALLY TO JUST SUNDAY EARLY EVENING. PROBS FROM WPC
INDICATE 15-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING
RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DEVILS LAKE-MAYVILLE-PARK RAPIDS LINE.
WORKING WITH PTYPES IS A CHALLENGE AND ENDED UP GOING A BROAD
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING RAIN 00Z-06Z MON
PERIOD.
MONDAY THRU FRIDAY SHOWS DRY WEATHER. SOME DRIER AIR AT 850 MB
MOVES IN TUESDAY SO BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SUN THEN, ESPECIALLY
E ND. OTHERWISE WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S
CHRISTMAS DAY AND THURSDAY AND MID 30S FRIDAY. EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY LIKELY A CLOUDY PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTH WIND
BLOWING 10-15 KTS. WHETHER THE AIRMASS BECOMES MOIST IN THE LOW
LEVELS FOR ANY DRIZZLE IS TO BE SEEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
MVFR TO IFR IN DVL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WINDOW TOMORROW
MORNING WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS AND
PREVAILING VIS TO DROP BELOW 5SM, THROUGH IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLOUD DECK WILL DRIFT. FOR GFK, TVF, BJI MVFR
CIGS WILL BE COMMON WITH BREAKS OF VFR. MAINLY VFR FOR FAR BUT
BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ENDING BY 03Z AT THE AFFECTED SITES. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH FAR AND DVL BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TT
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