731
FXUS63 KFGF 220034
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH A GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE.
- WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
LIGHT BR BRINGING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 6 MILES AT LANGDON, BUT NO
INDICATION OF ANY IMPACTS ON THE WEB CAM OR ND ROADS MAP. MAIN
IMPACTS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE LATER ON TOMORROW WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND MORE MOISTURE. NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST WE HAVE GOING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..SYNOPSIS
CURRENT WESTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
NEXT DAY WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL TO QUASI SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR MORE SUSTAINED CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING WITH
INCREASING OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. AS FLOW SHIFTS THROUGH
THE WEEK A WARMUP CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED COMPLICATING THE FORECAST
WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES BECOMING POSSIBLE.
- WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
A SHORTWAVE, JUST NOW COMING ASHORE THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST, WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT BEFORE EJECTING EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH SUBTLE LOWER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
CURRENTLY PRESIDING OVER THE REGION THE PRESENT DRY LOWER TO MID
LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN STRONGER FORCING IS NEARBY.
INITIALLY THERE LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SOUTH OF HWY 200 IN
BOTH MN AND ND FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. AS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN
850-750MB SATURATES AND WET BULBS TO AROUND THE 0C MARK, HEAVILY
RIMED SNOWFLAKES WILL LIKELY BECOME FAVORED IF NOT SLEET. THIS
LEAVES MUCH UP IN THE AIR ABOUT HOW MUCH OF ANY GIVEN P-TYPE WILL
FALL BUT WITH OUR RECENT COLD SPELL AND FRESH SNOWPACK ANYTHING THAT
DOES FALL SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUE ACCUMULATING. CURRENTLY PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGHEST (AT 30%) IN SOUTHEAST ND FOR A GLAZE TO COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF ICE WITH HIGH CHANCE OF QPF EXCEEDING 0.05 INCHES. THE
DIFFERENCE IN 0.05" OF ICE VS A FEW TENTHS IS SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE
THE DIFFERENCE IN NEEDING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A GLAZE OF
ICE AND SEASONAL NORTHERN PLAINS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. FOR NOW
WILL UTILIZE AN SPS TO RAISE AWARENESS FOR THE WINTRY MIX AND GLAZE
OF ICE POTENTIAL.
- HOLIDAY WARMUP
WITH THE PIVOT FROM OUR RECENT NW FLOW TO ZONAL/SW FLOW, BUILDING
850MB THERMAL RIDGING WILL SEE HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE TODAY HIGH IN
THE TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY CHRISTMAS (TUESDAY) WITH
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES STICKING AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME GOOD
AND SOME BAD WILL CERTAINLY COME FROM THIS. THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
DO WONDERS TO CRUST OVER OUR FRESH SNOWPACK FROM A FEW DAYS AGO
MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO BLOW. ON THE CONTRARY SURFACES
COULD CERTAINLY SEE THE IMPACT OF THE COMING DECEMBER THAW WITH A
SOUPY MESS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. WE'LL TRY TO STAY IN THE HOLIDAY
SPIRIT HOWEVER AND FOCUS ON THE POSITIVES AND NOT THE NEGATIVES FOR
THIS ONE. FINALLY TO WRAP UP AS CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME
ALIGNMENT WITH MORE STOUT SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE LATE WEEK IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WONT BE AN ENTIRELY DRY WEEK BUT STILL NO NOTABLE
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON ONCE WE GET PAST SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TAF SITES, BUT KGFK
HAS GONE DOWN TO MVFR AND KDVL TO IFR AS LOWER STRATUS HAS BEEN
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THAT KDVL AND
KBJI WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO GO DOWN/STAY IFR, WITH KFAR
REMAINING VFR AND THE REST STAYING BETWEEN AT MVFR. FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT KDVL BUT NOT GOING BELOW 1SM YET AS PROBABILITIES
ARE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT AT OUR AIRPORT LOCATIONS, EVEN WITH
SOME OF THE MODELS GOING DOWN PRETTY LOW IN VIS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CATEGORY IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 KTS OR MORE THIS EVENING WILL
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR/TT
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR
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