603
FXUS63 KFGF 221920
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
120 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX WITHIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AFTER SUNSET INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM LIGHT ICING. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF A
GLAZE OF ICE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- WARMING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
FOG IN NORTHEAST ND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING. WILL LIKELY LET
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 2 PM.
MUCH OF THE SAME SENTIMENTS IN PREVIOUS UPDATE REMAIN VALID.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX STILL EXISTS IN PORTIONS EASTERN ND
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, AND WEST-CENTRAL MN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
10 THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS AROUND A 40% CHANCE
FOR LIGHT ICING WITHIN THIS AREA, AND STILL BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK SURFACES.
A FINGER OF DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER A PORTION OF NORTHEAST
ND, MAINLY NEAR THE PEMBINA ESCARPMENT. WEBCAMS REVEAL THIS FOG
IS VERY DENSE IN SOME AREAS, LESS THAN EIGHTH OF A MILE. DUE TO
THE VERY DENSE NATURE OF THIS FOG, DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHEN OR
IF THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE/LIFT, AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHER AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT, WITH EASTERN ND ALONG AND WEST OF THE WESTERN
RED RIVER VALLEY HOLDING RELATIVELY HIGHEST CHANCES (40%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
..SYNOPSIS
WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB TODAY TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST MID WEEK AND
SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND. ONE SHORT WAVE TO PASS EAST-SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA INTO NORTHEAST SD TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A
QUIET PERIOD TIL NEXT WEEKEND.
..TODAY-TONIGHT
OBSERVATIONS IN MONTANA INDICATE A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE JUST OFF
THE SURFACE AND THIS SEEMS TO BE LIMITING ANY FREEZING RAIN IN
THAT AREA SO FAR. MODELS DO HAVE IT DEVELOPING AND OVER NE
MONTANA AND FAR NW ND 12Z-15Z PERIOD. SO A BIT SLOWER THAN PREV
FCSTS.
OVERALL THEME FROM ALL THE SHORT TERM CAM MODELS AND GLOBAL
MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM AT 500 MB MOVING ESE AND ONLY A
SMALL AREA WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH MODEST 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. QPF AMOUNTS
AND COVEARGE OF PRECIP ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WAS
SHOWN 24 HOURS AGO. JUST NORTH OF THE 500 MB VORT WILL BE AN
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM NW ND INTO SE ND AND CENTRAL
MN. IT DOES DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND/MN TONIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FOCUSED NEAR LIDGERWOOD ND IN FAR SE ND INDICATE
A WARM 850 MB LAYER LATE TODAY AS MOISTURE TRIES TO MOVE IN BUT
ALSO SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIRMASS 900 THRU 750 MB. AS 500 MB SYSTEM
MOVES INTO NE SD SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRESENT TO SATURATE THE
900 TO 750 MB LAYER 03Z-06Z AND WHEN THAT DOES TEMPS COOL AND
THE COLUMN IS BELOW ZERO. THUS WOULD APPEAR ANY FZRA PRECIP IS
TIED TO EARLY EVENING BUT WHEN MOISTURE IS LESS....THEN
WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW.
WPC PROBS FOR 0.01 INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN IS 5-15 PERCENT
FROM VALLEY CITY TO WAHPETON TO FERGUS FALLS....ZERO DEVILS LAKE
TO GRAND FORKS. NBM PROBS FOR SAME ARE UNDER 10 PCT IN FAR SE ND
FOR THIS EVENING AND LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SIMILAR WITH PROBS FOR
GLAZE OF ICE LESS THAN 10 PCT. WITH THIS WILL NOT RE-ISSUE SPS
AS AT THIS TIME DOESNT SEEM WARRANTED. WILL MESSAGE IN HWO AND
ALSO CONTINUE A LOW CHC FREEZING RAIN GRAPHIC AND TAILOR IT FOR
THE WPC PROB AREA 10-15 PCT IN FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA.
OF COURSE...MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES MAY BE OFF AND IF SYSTEM
IS BACK TO BEING STRONGER THAN CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED. BUT GOOD
CONSISTENCY FROM 00Z DATA IN THE LESSER IMPACTS.
..MONDAY AND BEYOND
A DRY PERIOD MONDAY THRU FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE-850 MB FLOW
TAKES OVER ON THURSDAY THE 26TH AND LOW LEVEL AIRMASS MOISTENS.
WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MIST/DRIZZLE AT THAT
TIME. BUT PREDICTABILITY ON THAT IS LOW. NBM AND ENSEMBLES FROM
GEFS/ECMWF KEEPING OUR AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF ANY SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL USE
MODEL BLEND PTYPE WHICH SHOWS CHC OF FZRA/RA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY RRV AND EAST. CONFIDENCE AS ONE WOULD EXPECT IS VERY
LOW IN THIS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD.
WHILE MOST TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY IN VFR CONDITIONS, LOWERED
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR, IFR, AND LIFR CATEGORY ARE FORECAST
AFTER 00Z. BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST CEILINGS INTO THE LIFR
CATEGORY EXIST AT KDVL AND KBJI STARTING AFTER 06Z.
A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST
WITHIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AGAIN AFTER 00Z. SITES LIKE KDVL
AND KFAR WOULD HOLD BEST CHANCE SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
INCLUDING CHANCE FOR ICING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN IT OCCURRING AT
ANY TAF SITE. THUS CHOSE TO OMIT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION IN
TAFS.
FOG IS ALSO FORECAST AFTER 00Z WITHIN THE REGION, INCLUDING A
40% CHANCE OF DENSE FOG, MAINLY IN EASTERN ND, INCLUDING KDVL.
CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG REMAINS LOWERED DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
WIND OVERNIGHT REMAINING CALM.
AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO KBJI DUE TO AWOS OUTAGE.
RETURN TO SERVICE OF AWOS IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH
TELCO IS AWARE OF THE ISSUE AND IS TROUBLESHOOTING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ007-
008-016-054.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...CJ
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