550  
FXUS63 KFGF 230953  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
353 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- FOG MAY BE PREVELENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD THIS WEEK,  
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ND.  
 
- AS WE GRADUALLY WARM UP, NEXT SYSTEM MOVES UP FRIDAY AND GIVES  
MAJORITY LIGHT RAIN. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SURFACE TEMPS  
CLOSELY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
WE TRANSITION TO A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW  
AT 500 MB THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WARMTH THRU  
THE WEEK, PEAKING FRIDAY. SYSTEM MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE  
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH GIVING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, WITH  
INDICATIONS ARE TO BE RAIN. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMP  
GUIDANCE.  
 
   
..THIS WEEK  
 
SHORT WAVE WHICH BROUGHT THE ICING ISSUES TO NORTHWEST INTO  
CENTRAL IS MOVING OUT. A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DID SNEAK INTO  
FAR SE ND MIDNIGHT-2 AM BUT HAS SINCE TURNED TO LIGHT SNOW AND  
IS MOVING OUT. LIGHT SNOW PATCHES IN WC MN AS WELL. ATMOSPHERIC  
COLUMN IS COOLING THIS MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THRU SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW  
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. WEAK NORTH SFC FLOW WITH THIS BUT  
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS TRENDED  
CLOUDIER THAN NBM AND OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS FOR CLOUDS. I DID  
KEEP SOME CHANCE OF SCATTERED CLEARING IN NW MN TODAY MAINLY FOR  
COLLABORATION PURPOSES BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM ALL I SEE IS  
CLOUDS. FOG....SOME DENSE IS IN NORTHEAST ND AND HAS BEEN  
SPREADING SOUTH, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS FROM CAVALIER AND LANGDON  
TO DEVILS LAKE AND NEW ROCKFORD WHERE WEBCAMS AND AWOS DATA  
SHOWS DENSE FOG IS WIDESPREAD. COORD WITH BIS AND HAVE DENSE FOG  
ADV THRU NOON THIS AREA. DID KEEP MENTION OF FOG MOST OF E ND  
AND RRV THRU THE DAY....BUT AS USUAL UNCERTAINITY EXISTS IN  
THIS. COULD WELL BE SOCKED IN ALL DAY ESP IN DVL BASIN.  
QUESTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. DISCUSSED WITH BIS AND LOOKS LIKE  
SOUNDING WHILE SUPPORTS THE CLOUDS AND FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS IN  
THE INVERSION UP THRU 900 MB UNSURE IF THERE IS ANY LIFT IN THIS  
LAYER OR ABOVE FOR ANY DRIZZLE. SO FOR THIS REASON KEPT DRIZZLE  
OUT OF THE FCST. DID MENTION IN NPW THOUGH ICE CRYSTALS MAY  
DEPOSIT ON SURFACES CAUSING THEM TO BE SLICK.  
 
FOR THE WEEK AS WE GRADUALLY WARM UP....CLOUDS AND FOG CHANCES  
MAY WELL LINGER EVERY DAY.  
 
FOR FRIDAY...ENSEMBLES PAINT A HIGHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TO  
MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. GFS AND ENSEMBLES A BIT  
HEAVIER WITH PRECIP (0.15 GEFS MEAN) VS ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL.  
BUT IF LOW LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN AS THEY ARE FORECAST WILL BE WARM  
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AS TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE MAJORITY IF  
NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP TIME. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED  
IN THE COMING DAYS. ALSO ROAD TEMPS TOO THEY SHOULD RISE SOME AS  
TEMPS MODERATE BUT MAY BE CLOSE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2024  
 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO IFR/LIFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND  
12Z MONDAY, WITH LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE AROUND DVL. WINDS WILL BE  
OUT OF THE NORTH, OR VARIABLE, ALL UNDER 10 KNOTS. INTO MONDAY  
EVENING, WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY BUT STILL BE LIGHT FOR THE  
TAF PERIOD.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-  
024-026-054.  
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ004-007.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE  
AVIATION...AH  
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