931
FXUS63 KFGF 240555
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1155 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH, WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ARE
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY, THEN ALSO INCLUDING THE RRV ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
LOW STRATUS HOUSING FLURRIES IS PROGRESSING EAST, WITH MARKED
INCREASE IN CLOUD HEIGHTS IN EASTERN ND AS NOTED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. THIS IS ENDING FLURRIES IN EASTERN ND, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO END WEST TO EAST IN MINNESOTA TONIGHT.
THIS IS A TEMPORARY END TO SNOW CHANCES AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN ADDITIONAL, STEADIER AND MEASURABLE SNOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL ND INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
AGAIN, NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS
SENTIMENTS REMAIN VALID REGARDING FLURRIES THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE STEADIER, MEASURABLE SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE SYNOPTIC WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS, SNOW HAS ENTERED WESTERN ND FROM MT/SK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS ND, ENTERING THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 4 AM - 6 AM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 722 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN EXPANDING AND
LINGERING FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. STRATUS FROM LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FILL IN FROM WEST TO
EAST, OF WHICH IS LIABLE TO SPIT OUT PERIODIC FLURRIES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE BEFORE MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC FORCING
ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASING THE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
..SYNOPSIS
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE STUCK IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE DURATION
OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
WEAK WAVES THAT BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES. DEPENDING ON WHETHER THERE IS FALLING SNOW AT
THE TIME, OR JUST BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE
GROUND, THIS COULD BRING MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
..LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE FIRST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE FA FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH A TRAILING ONE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
MAKES FOR STEADY 850MB WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.
THINK THE CURRENT LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE OUT THERE NOW WILL BE
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION, SO IT WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ANY AREAS THAT STAY CLOUDY SHOULD ALSO SEE AT
LEAST SOME FLURRIES. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WE ARE STILL THINKING MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
AMOUNTS AROUND OR LESS THAN 1 INCH, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE UP TO
2 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE OVER
A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD, AND THE RATES OF SNOW WILL VARY
THROUGHOUT. AS WE KNOW, VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE WORST WHEN SNOW
IS FALLING.
..WINDY CONDITIONS
AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GUSTY (SUSTAINED WINDS 20
TO 30 MPH) FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE DEVILS
LAKE REGION. MOVING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THESE SORT OF
WINDS WILL EXPAND INTO THE RRV AS WELL AS THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION. ON SUNDAY, SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE EVEN HIGHER ALONG AND
WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RRV (SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35
MPH). WIND DIRECTIONS LOOK TO BE WESTERLY FRIDAY, NORTHWEST
SATURDAY, AND WESTERLY ON SUNDAY. EACH OF THESE DAYS SHOULD
FEATURE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW (DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
BLOWABLE SNOW REMAINS). THESE MINOR IMPACTS FROM BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SHOULD BE FELT THE MOST ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION.
WITH WESTERLY WINDS, THE IMMEDIATE RRV IS SOMEWHAT SHELTERED.
SOMETIMES WITH WESTERLY WINDS, THERE IS A LITTLE RRV SKIP OVER
AND THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE VALLEY SEE A LITTLE WORSE
CONDITIONS THAT RIGHT WITHIN. WITH SNOW DRIFTING ACROSS
SURFACES, SCATTERED SLIPPERY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP. OF COURSE,
ANYTIME THERE IS STEADY FALLING SNOW, THESE BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW THOUGHTS GO OUT THE WINDOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST WITHIN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH
AT LEAST 09Z, INCLUDING KBJI AND KTVF; HOWEVER, BREAKS IN LOW
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR NOW THROUGH 09Z. KBJI MAY HOLD ON TO LOW
CEILINGS BEYOND 09Z. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE OCCURING UNDER
THIS CLOUD DECK, BUT VISIBILITIES REMAIN VFR.
STEADIER SNOWFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 12Z-20Z, GENERALLY LASTING 2-4 HOURS AT ANY ONE TAF
SITE, WITH KBJI BEING THE LAST TO SEE SNOW. THIS WILL BRING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES 1-3SM, AS WELL AS MVFR CEILINGS.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
IN TURN WOULD INTRODUCE AREAS OF BLSN, FURTHER REDUCING
VISIBILITIES INTO THE LOW MVFR TO IFR RANGE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING, AND WILL DEPEND ON CLEARING OF CLOUDS
TO HELP INCREASE MIXING WITHIN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. KDVL HOLDS RELATIVELY BEST CHANCE IN THIS OCCURRING.
ANOTHER UNCERTAIN ASPECT TO THE FORECAST IS POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AFTER 20Z. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, WILL MAY LOWER VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 3SM FOR BRIEF (AROUND 1 HOUR) PERIODS. AGAIN, THIS IS
DEPENDENT UPON CLEARING OF CLOUDS TO INCREASE
MIXING/INSTABILITY.
WHILE OUTSIDE OF THE TAF PERIOD (BEYOND 06Z SATURDAY), A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING POTENTIAL
AVIATION IMPACTS FROM GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30KT,
SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1SM, AND LOWERED CEILINGS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...CJ/RAFFERTY
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