674
FXUS63 KFGF 241005
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA UP TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION IN
THE COMING WEEK. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LOW, THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS MINIMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST EXPECTED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA TODAY, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
ALLOW A MENTION OF POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW TODAY'S
SYSTEM, THUS PROLONGING LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN STARTING SUNDAY AS
ARCTIC AIR TEMPORARILY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 20S. BY MONDAY, HIGHS COULD REACH WELL INTO
THE 30S AS WESTERLY WINDS MIX VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS INTO THE NEAR-
SURFACE LAYER. THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY STRONG
DOWNSLOPING AND SUBSEQUENT WARMING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, LOW H5 HEIGHTS OVER THE HUDSON
BAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY INTO SATURDAY
A SERIES OF 2 SHORTWAVES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW INTO THE AREA
STARTING THIS MORNING IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, THEN WORKING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERALL, LOOK FOR A
DUSTING OF SNOW FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD, WITH UP TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND
MIDDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 MPH, MAINLY WEST
OF THE RED RIVER. GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WITHIN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER; HOWEVER,
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AS SUCH, PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW COULD LEAD TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING, THAT TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SLICK ROADWAYS AS SNOW DRIFTS ACROSS THEM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST WITHIN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH
AT LEAST 09Z, INCLUDING KBJI AND KTVF; HOWEVER, BREAKS IN LOW
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR NOW THROUGH 09Z. KBJI MAY HOLD ON TO LOW
CEILINGS BEYOND 09Z. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE OCCURING UNDER
THIS CLOUD DECK, BUT VISIBILITIES REMAIN VFR.
STEADIER SNOWFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 12Z-20Z, GENERALLY LASTING 2-4 HOURS AT ANY ONE TAF
SITE, WITH KBJI BEING THE LAST TO SEE SNOW. THIS WILL BRING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES 1-3SM, AS WELL AS MVFR CEILINGS.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
IN TURN WOULD INTRODUCE AREAS OF BLSN, FURTHER REDUCING
VISIBILITIES INTO THE LOW MVFR TO IFR RANGE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING, AND WILL DEPEND ON CLEARING OF CLOUDS
TO HELP INCREASE MIXING WITHIN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. KDVL HOLDS RELATIVELY BEST CHANCE IN THIS OCCURRING.
ANOTHER UNCERTAIN ASPECT TO THE FORECAST IS POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AFTER 20Z. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, WILL MAY LOWER VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 3SM FOR BRIEF (AROUND 1 HOUR) PERIODS. AGAIN, THIS IS
DEPENDENT UPON CLEARING OF CLOUDS TO INCREASE
MIXING/INSTABILITY.
WHILE OUTSIDE OF THE TAF PERIOD (BEYOND 06Z SATURDAY), A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING POTENTIAL
AVIATION IMPACTS FROM GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30KT,
SCATTERED HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1SM, AND LOWERED CEILINGS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...CJ/RAFFERTY
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