259
FXUS63 KFGF 250348
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITHIN
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING AND FALLING SNOW. OCCASIONAL
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN OPEN COUNTRY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE GREATER SNOWPACK EXISTS.
OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON LIKELIHOOD
OF BRIEF HEAVY SNOW RATES AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS
OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE SECTION, BLOW ICE HAS MADE
ROADS IN NORTHEAST ND/DEVILS LAKE BASIN ICY. ICY ANTECEDENT
ROADS AHEAD OF WINTER IMPACTS FROM GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY CAN INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
AREAS WITHIN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY IN MINNESOTA HOLD A
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE AT SEEING MORE FREQUENT WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE HIGHER CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS, MESSAGING NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THIS AREA SEES WARNING-IMPACTS.
ELSEWHERE, BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW; ALTHOUGH FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY IS MUCH LOWER DUE TO LESS SNOWPACK AVAILABLE TO
BLOW. THERE IS STILL A 30% CHANCE FOR AREAS WITHIN THE REST OF
EASTERN ND AND RED RIVER VALLEY TO SEE ADVISORY-IMPACTS.
GIVEN THIN SNOWPACK AND SNOW-SCOURED FIELDS WITHIN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 659 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
IMPACTS FROM REDUCED VISIBILITY LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, OF WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AT
TIMES, IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW AND BRIEF HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING ND FROM
THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WITHIN SOUTHERN SK SHOW A
HANDFUL OF LESS THAN 1/4SM VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING SNOW
AND/OR HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, TRAFFIC DATA AND
WEBCAMS SHOW NOTEWORTHY TRAVEL IMPACTS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ND INTO NORTHWEST MN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. DEBATING ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR IMPACTS
FROM REDUCED VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2SM FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER AND MORE BLOWABLE.
ISOLATED AREAS/BRIEF INSTANCES OF BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO LIABLE TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THESE
LOCATIONS; HOWEVER AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS LOOKS UNLIKELY (10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING).
ANOTHER ADDED LAYER TO POTENTIALLY NUDGING UP IMPACT POTENTIAL
ARE ANTECEDENT ICY ROADS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY THAT HAVE SUCCUMBED TO BLOW ICE THIS PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON.
WILL WAIT TO DOUBLE CHECK THE 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION ON HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SNOW STILL CONTINUES IN MINNESOTA FROM WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT
AS SYNOPTIC LIFT ALOFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF OF THE
MID LEVEL WAVE'S CIRCULATION OUT OF MB.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
STOUT LONGWAVE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE AND DIMINISH IN AMPLITUDE WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALSO FEATURE AND EXTENDED WESTERLY
CHINOOK TYPE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT KEEPS ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- ONGOING SNOW
SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY A DUAL SHORTWAVE
FEATURE WORKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRING TWO ROUNDS OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. THE FIRST IS NEAR OUT THE AREA WITH THE
SECOND ROUND PROGGED TO MAINLY BE AN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EVENT WITH AN
ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL PART OF THIS FRONT WITH BE INCREASING WINDS WITH
NEW SNOW LIKELY TO DRIFT AND BLOW AROUND ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT TIMES THIS COULD LEAD TO ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR BLOWING SNOW DEPENDING HOW WARM WE MAY GET TO
DEVELOP A CRUST ON NEW SNOW HELPING TO DAMPEN THE BLOWABILITY OF
IT.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE 20S AND 30S EACH DAYS WITH A PEAK WARMTH DAY ON SUNDAY AS
SOME (MAINLY SOUTH OF I94) SEE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT HIGHS IN THE
40S. OVERALL LOOKS TO A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY NON IMPACTFUL
WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF BLOWING SNOW AND A FEW CHANCES FOR
FLURRIES.
BEYOND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THINGS LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN
AS A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS NORTH EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO BRING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE
NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH COMPARED TO THE ROUGHLY ZERO CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WE ARE EXPECTING BEFOREHAND ANYTHING WOULD BE AN
INCREASE IN CHANCES. THINGS DO LOOK TO TEMPER IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATES TO END NEXT WEEK HOWEVER WITH HIGH IN A MORE AVERAGE
TEENS TO 20S RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
AVIATION IMPACTS FROM GUSTY WINDS, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND
LOWERED CEILINGS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THIS TAF PERIOD.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTING WESTERLY WINDS
TO NORTHWEST GUSTING BETWEEN 25-40KT, HIGHEST WITHIN EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY, INCLUDING KDVL, KGFK,
KFAR, AND KTVF. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ALSO, BLOWING
SNOW IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. BOTH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY 1/2SM OR LESS.
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST UNTIL
SCATTERING OUT AND CLEARING AFTER 18Z.
HIGHEST IMPACT PERIOD WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z-18Z, WITH EASTERN ND
AND RED RIVER VALLEY SITES LIKE KDVL, KFAR, KGFK, AND KTVF,
HOLDING BEST CHANCE AT SEEING AVIATION IMPACTS FROM GUSTY WINDS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR
MNZ004-005-007-008.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...CJ
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