126
FXUS63 KFGF 261608
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1008 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY DUE TO
DRIFTING SNOW. WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1008 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
WAA AHEAD OF THE PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS LED TO AREAS
OF FLURRIES MAINLY IN NORTHWEST MN, WHICH SHOULD PROGRESS EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY. GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT HAVE STARTED
TO INCREASED IN ND BEHIND THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH, AND GUSTS TO 40
MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG/WEST OF THE RRV ESCARPMENT (SOME
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH IN THE VALLEY). THESE WINDS MAY LEAD TO
DRIFTING SNOW TODAY, OTHERWISE IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. DURING
THIS UPDATE I MADE ADJUSTMENTS SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY-TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS, IN THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES, WILL INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AT THE 850MB LEVEL
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH TWO H7 SHORTWAVES USHERING IN 850MB TEMPS AS
HIGH AS 6C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH EVEN A FEW 40 DEGREE READINGS IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA (20 PERCENT CHANCE). THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY, MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AS
A SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE H5 PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY
MORE ZONAL, THUS ENDING THE INFLUENCE OF VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS;
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE AN ABSENCE OF COLD AIR TO REPLACE THE
ANTECEDENT WARM TEMPERATURES. MUCH IS THE SAME FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR IMPACTS.
LOOKING TOWARD THE WEEKEND, THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNALS FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL SYSTEMS; HOWEVER, ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND MANY
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SYSTEMS OF VARIOUS SHAPES AND SIZES TRAVERSING
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
..DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE. IN AREAS WHERE WE SEE THE HIGHER WINDS, SNOW IS
LIKELY TO DRIFT ACROSS ROADWAYS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY AND
MONDAY, DRIFTED SNOW COULD FORM SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND SURFACES.
ANY MELTING THAT OCCURS, AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY,
COULD RE-FREEZE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THUS CREATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SLICK SPOTS AND THE RESULTANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
IMPACTS TO AVIATION OVER THE TAF PERIOD WILL INCLUDE LLWS AS
WELL AS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE WEST THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 33 KNOTS AT KDVL,
WITH LOWER GUSTS RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS
MIX TO THE SURFACE BY AROUND MIDDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED ONCE MORE
STARTING THIS EVENING, THEN WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BLOWING SNOW COULD CAUSE INTERMITTENT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT DRIFTING SNOW MORE SO THAN BLOWING SNOW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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