201
FXUS63 KFGF 262026
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
226 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO DRIFTING
SNOW. WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT FLOW, A MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER CALIFORNIA BECOMES CUTOFF AND TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS IN THE MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACKS
GENERALLY REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION, THOUGH A FEW
WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD BRING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
FLURRIES/LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST ANGLE. AS SPLIT FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED, DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO BRING BROAD DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, MODERATING THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME OF THESE
WAVES AS MENTIONED MAY FEATURE LOW PROBABILITY FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE ISN'T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR LIGHT ICING AT
THIS TIME THAT RAISES CHANCES IN ANY PERIOD ENOUGH TO MESSAGE.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES DO SHOW SOME SPREAD IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALONG WITH MORE SPREAD IN EMBEDDED WAVES
WITHIN THE ACTIVE FLOW. THIS CREATES A LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CLUSTERS. TWO CLUSTERS MAINTAIN PREDOMINATELY
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE OTHER TWO
BRING LOWERING HEIGHTS, AND SUPPORT A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES AS THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..WINDS AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS MAINTAINING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SIGNAL
BIAS CORRECTED NBM FIELDS FOR NEAR ADVISORY WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY (MAINLY WEST DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT),
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A STOUT ELEVATED INVERSION DUE TO STRONG
WAA ALOFT LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL. THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER SYNOPTICALLY WITHOUT DEEPER MIXING (DUE TO
WAA/LACK OF DOWNWARD MOTION ALOFT) AND MODEL SOUNDS LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN GUSTS HIGHER THAN 30-40 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES RISE NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS DRIFTING SNOW DOES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OR MELT/REFREEZE ON SURFACES DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS
WHEN THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE. WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE, MELTING
WOULD BE FAVORED WITH LIMITED REFREEZE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED DRIFTING/BLOWING SNOW (THOUGH
IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME). LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT A 45-55KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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