296
FXUS63 KFGF 270405
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1005 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO DRIFTING
SNOW. WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN BACK TOWARDS SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE WILL SLOWLY WORK THERE
WAY DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS ON THE INCREASE.
BACKED OFF ON SOME OF THE GUSTS THIS EVENING, BUT COULD STILL
SEE PATCHY GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LOOKING TO
STILL INCREASE AROUND THE MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLEARING ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. CURRENT SATELLITE HAS A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN CANADA THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK
THERE WAY DOWN TOWARDS ND/MN OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY TRANSITIONING TO SPLIT FLOW, A MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE
OVER CALIFORNIA BECOMES CUTOFF AND TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS IN THE MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACKS
GENERALLY REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION, THOUGH A FEW
WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD BRING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
FLURRIES/LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST ANGLE. AS SPLIT FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED, DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO BRING BROAD DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, MODERATING THE AIR MASS ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME OF THESE
WAVES AS MENTIONED MAY FEATURE LOW PROBABILITY FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE ISN'T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR LIGHT ICING AT
THIS TIME THAT RAISES CHANCES IN ANY PERIOD ENOUGH TO MESSAGE.
BY LATE NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES DO SHOW SOME SPREAD IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME ALONG WITH MORE SPREAD IN EMBEDDED WAVES
WITHIN THE ACTIVE FLOW. THIS CREATES A LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CLUSTERS. TWO CLUSTERS MAINTAIN PREDOMINATELY
DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE OTHER TWO
BRING LOWERING HEIGHTS, AND SUPPORT A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES AS THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES
CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..WINDS AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS MAINTAINING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SIGNAL
BIAS CORRECTED NBM FIELDS FOR NEAR ADVISORY WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY (MAINLY WEST DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT),
HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A STOUT ELEVATED INVERSION DUE TO STRONG
WAA ALOFT LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL. THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL SET UP FOR
STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER SYNOPTICALLY WITHOUT DEEPER MIXING (DUE TO
WAA/LACK OF DOWNWARD MOTION ALOFT) AND MODEL SOUNDS LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN GUSTS HIGHER THAN 30-40 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES RISE NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE FREEZING AT SOME LOCATIONS DRIFTING SNOW DOES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OR MELT/REFREEZE ON SURFACES DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS
WHEN THERE IS MORE SUNSHINE. WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE, MELTING
WOULD BE FAVORED WITH LIMITED REFREEZE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES REMAIN FEW
TO SKC ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AT 10-15KTS.
GUSTS REACH UP TO 25KTS FOR TVF, FAR, GFK, AND DVL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. DVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 30KTS
AROUND 6Z-13Z. LLWS WILL INCREASE AROUND 6Z FOR ALL SITES AND
LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH 14-15Z. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SWITCH TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS REMAINING 20-25KTS FOR ALL SITES, BUT BJI.
THE CLOUD DECK IN CANADA SHIFTS INTO THE AREA AROUND 6-8Z AND
CREATES A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK THROUGH 17-20Z. AFTER, SKIES
TURN SCT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET. DURING THE TIME BLSN IS
POSSIBLE FOR DVL, GFK, FAR, AND TVF BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD
REMAIN P6SM DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...SPENDER
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...SPENDER
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