547
FXUS63 KFGF 271721
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1121 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WEST WINDS TUESDAY MAY BRING DRIFTING SNOW AND MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT-TUES AM LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA. TRACE REST OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THIS. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL (GUSTS TO 40 MPH) WINDS TOMORROW
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 940 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE REGION WITH
SOME RETURNS CROPPING UP ON NEARBY RADARS. HOWEVER, DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND CEILINGS ARE VERY HIGH, SO THIS IS MORE LIKELY
VIRGA AS THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY OBSERVATIONS OF SNOW QUITE YET.
IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO NONE AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 737 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
CONSIDERING MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA STILL STREAMING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WINDS HAVE TURNED A BIT MORE
NORTHWEST OVER NE ND AND WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING A TAD. RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BLOSSOMED BUT SEEING NO EVIDENCE OF ANY FLURRIES.
BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR DRIFTING/BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS IS DWINDLING AS STRONGER WINDS ARE GOING AWAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
PEAK 925 MB WINDS ARE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY (09Z) WITH 40 KTS
AT 925 MB. THERE IS SURFACE INVERSION PRESENT WITH WARM
ADVECTION SFC TO 850 MB. THEREFORE NOT SEEING THE STRONGER WINDS
MIX DOWN. BUT CHECK OF OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS GUSTS 35 KTS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE 2 HOURS WEST EDGE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE LANGDON, DEVILS LAKE AREA.
THE AREA OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DROP SOUTH TODAY AND BY NOON
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTN IN SAME
AREAS. THEREFORE DID TRIM BACK MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW TO THIS
MORNING THRU 18Z. AND MORE OF A DRIFTING SNOW THAN LOFTED
BLOWING. BUT STILL SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY OCCUR THIS MORNING
DUE TO THIS IN WINDIER AREAS OF NE ND.
SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH MID CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH IN WARM ADV
PATTERN.
SFC LOW AND 500 MB LOW IN NW ONTRAIO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND A
850 COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NE ND AND NW MN BY MID AFTN
WITH A SURFACE FRONT AS WELL ENDING UP NEAR A CANDO-GRAND
FORKS-PARK RAPIDS LINE EARLY THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR IS WELL
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT SO NOT A RAPID FALLOFF IN TEMPS NORTH OF
THE FRONT. VERY MILD SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS TODAY
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN ALL AREAS, THOUGH PEAKING EARLY AFTN
IN FAR NW MN AND FAR NE ND BEFORE FALLING BY 00Z. WITH THE SFC
FRONT AND 850 COLD FRONT THAT WILL HANG OUT IN NE ND INTO NW MN
LATER TODAY AND EVENING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND
MAINTAINED A 20 POP IN THIS AREA LATE TODAY/EVENING.
..LAKE OF THE WOODS SNOW POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT/TUES AM
STRONGER CLIPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TODAY
AND QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING. WARM
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW WILL
GENERATE A BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL SKIRT THE FAR NORTHEAST FCST
AREA (ROSEAU-WASKISH-WAROAD-BAUDETTE) LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES AM.
SNOWFALL OF 1-2 INCHES FORECAST FOR BAUDETTE, ANGLE INLET AREA
WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH FARTHER SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ANY SNOW AMOUNTS IN NE ND AND
WEST/SOUTH OF TVF/BJI WILL BE TRACE.
WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD AGAIN TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.
THOUGH THINK NBM WINDS ARE A BIT HIGH DUE TO ANTICIPATED SURFACE
INVERSION. BUT GUSTS 35 KTS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY AND THIS TIME MORE
OVER ALL OF E ND, JUST WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SO WILL
HAVE PATCHY BLSN AGAIN FOR THIS (AND ONCE AGAIN MAINLY DRIFTING).
MILD TOO AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND WELL INTO THE 30S TO SOME LOW
40S IN FAR SE ND WHERE LESS SNOWCOVER IS OBSERVED.
UP AND DOWN TEMP PATTERN CONTINUES WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING TO
NW MN TUES NIGHT-WED (WITH 20S FOR HIGHS WED) WHILE ABOVFE
FREEZING HIGHS SE ND. SAME SET UP THURSDAY WITH MILDER AIR
LIKELY MOST ALL AREAS WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING. BUT TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE JUST TO OUR NORTH/EAST IN E
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO SO WOULDNT TAKE MUCH FOR COLDER THAN
FCST TEMPS TO BE IN NW MN VS WHAT IS IN THERE FOR THURSDAY.
.NEXT WEEKEND
BAROCLINIC ZONE LIKELY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA. THUS HIGH
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES AMONG ENSEMBLES AND HIGH SPREAD IN
PREDICTED 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN. GEFS WOULD PREFER TO HAVE A
DEEPER TROUGH OFF CALIFORNIA COAST AND A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW
INTO OUR AREA VS ECMWF A LESS DEEP TROUGH AND A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW. EITHER WAY THOUGH WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE LOWER THAN
USUAL CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT FRI-SUN PERIOD. ALSO
PRECIPITATION (SNOW) POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DEPENDS ON POSITION OF
ANY FRONT OR LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST. ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN CEILINGS, A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EITHER
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO 60 KNOTS OR VERY STRONG NEAR
SURFACE WINDS. WITH A VERY STRONG INVERSION TONIGHT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE FOR THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
TO DEVELOP AS TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING, PEAKING AROUND 12Z, BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
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