214
FXUS63 KFGF 272014
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
214 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A 60% CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY AND A 10% CHANCE FOR A HIGH
WIND WARNING.
- SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS/BELTRAMI COUNTY AREA
MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT UP
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW WITH A LOW CHANCE TO GET TO 2 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A MEANDERING FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL COME CRASHING BACK DOWN ONCE AGAIN
BY THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW BRINGS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AHEAD OF IT. HIGHER IMPACTS
FROM THIS COULD ARISE IF WE ACCUMULATE MUCH OF ANY SNOW THAT CAN
BLOW SINCE OUR CURRENT SNOWPACK IS LIKELY TO EITHER DISAPPEAR
OR CRUST OVER BY THEN.
..WIND TOMORROW
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
925MB WINDS ARE VERY STRONG, APPROACHING AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS IN
SOME ENSEMBLE RUNS. WHILST THIS SIGNAL IS RATHER CONCERNING,
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A VERY STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING
AS A RESULT OF DIURNAL COOLING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PREVENT THE BULK OF THESE WINDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
NBM PROBABILITIES REFLECT THIS WELL WITH THE IQR (25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE) OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 45 KNOTS, WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AROUND 55 KNOTS. BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT WORKING
AGAINST WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE, THE PROBABILITY FOR A
WIND ADVISORY IS 60% AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IS 10%.
..SNOW TOMORROW
A RATHER STRONG LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BRING A LOBE OF STRONGER
CVA TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
CVA IS RATHER STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WHILE MOISTURE CONTENT ISN'T
PARTICULARLY STRONG, THIS DOES LEND CREDENCE TO POTENTIAL
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN (RELATIVELY)
WARM SO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT ALL. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. THERE
ARE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DON'T HAVE ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR CWA, MAINLY BECAUSE THE FORCING IS MUCH
MORE EAST. GIVEN THE FAST MOTION AS WELL, GENERALLY EXPECT UP TO
1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN LAKE OF THE WOODS/BELTRAMI COUNTY
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR 2.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST. ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN CEILINGS, A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EITHER
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO 60 KNOTS OR VERY STRONG NEAR
SURFACE WINDS. WITH A VERY STRONG INVERSION TONIGHT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE FOR THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
TO DEVELOP AS TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING, PEAKING AROUND 12Z, BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...PERROUX
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