971
FXUS63 KFGF 280019
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
619 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A 60% CHANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY AND A 10% CHANCE FOR A HIGH
WIND WARNING.
- SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS/BELTRAMI COUNTY AREA
MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT UP
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW WITH A LOW CHANCE TO GET TO 2 INCHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER IS PUSHING ACROSS MOST OF THE FA
RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, MOST OF IT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO MOST OF THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY MILD, AND WITH THE CLOUD COVER, SHOULD
NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY.
THE STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, THEN THEY WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN
BY LATE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A MEANDERING FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL COME CRASHING BACK DOWN ONCE AGAIN
BY THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW BRINGS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE
REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AHEAD OF IT. HIGHER IMPACTS
FROM THIS COULD ARISE IF WE ACCUMULATE MUCH OF ANY SNOW THAT CAN
BLOW SINCE OUR CURRENT SNOWPACK IS LIKELY TO EITHER DISAPPEAR
OR CRUST OVER BY THEN.
..WIND TOMORROW
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
925MB WINDS ARE VERY STRONG, APPROACHING AS HIGH AS 60 KNOTS IN
SOME ENSEMBLE RUNS. WHILST THIS SIGNAL IS RATHER CONCERNING,
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A VERY STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING
AS A RESULT OF DIURNAL COOLING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PREVENT THE BULK OF THESE WINDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
NBM PROBABILITIES REFLECT THIS WELL WITH THE IQR (25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE) OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 45 KNOTS, WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AROUND 55 KNOTS. BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT WORKING
AGAINST WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE, THE PROBABILITY FOR A
WIND ADVISORY IS 60% AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IS 10%.
..SNOW TOMORROW
A RATHER STRONG LOW ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BRING A LOBE OF STRONGER
CVA TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
CVA IS RATHER STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WHILE MOISTURE CONTENT ISN'T
PARTICULARLY STRONG, THIS DOES LEND CREDENCE TO POTENTIAL
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN (RELATIVELY)
WARM SO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT ALL. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES. THERE
ARE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DON'T HAVE ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR CWA, MAINLY BECAUSE THE FORCING IS MUCH
MORE EAST. GIVEN THE FAST MOTION AS WELL, GENERALLY EXPECT UP TO
1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN LAKE OF THE WOODS/BELTRAMI COUNTY
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR 2.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON JAN 27 2025
A DECK OF BKN025-040 CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT
ENTIRELY SURE IT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND AFFECT KFAR TOO, BUT IT
SHOULD AFFECT ALL THE OTHER TAF SITES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME THE BIG STORY, AS WELL AS LLWS.
THEY WILL START OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS, GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS, THEN REALLY START TO CRANK UP
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW STRONG THESE WINDS MAY BE, AT LEAST INITIALLY, AS THERE
IS ALSO STRONG WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER, ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY MID TO LATE MORNING, THEY SHOULD PICK UP
A LITTLE MORE. THE MOST WIND WILL LIKELY NOT BE FELT AT THE
SURFACE, DUE THE INVERSION BEING PRESENT. HOWEVER, THOSE 55 TO
60 KNOT WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE 850MB LEVEL, SO DID MENTION THAT
IN THE LLWS GROUP. DON'T EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN THESE TYPE OF
SPEEDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...GODON
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